Fresno State travels to Reno for a key Mountain West showdown against Nevada on Friday night for Week 8 of the 2024 college football season. The Bulldogs and Wolf Pack both have one conference loss already, so any hopes of contending for a spot in the Mountain West title game hinge on avoiding another defeat on Friday night.
Nevada is among the nation's most-improved teams in '24. New coach Jeff Choate has guided the Wolf Pack to drastic improvement after a 2-10 mark last year, as the program has already exceeded that win total with a 3-4 mark this fall. After losing by five to SMU in the opener, Nevada defeated Troy, Eastern Washington and Oregon State to reach three victories. In the Wolf Pack's four losses, three of those came by four points or less. The only defeat by more than that was a 27-0 loss at Minnesota.
Fresno State's '24 season suffered an early setback when coach Jeff Tedford stepped down in the summer due to health concerns. Interim coach Tim Skipper has guided the team to a 3-3 start, with the losses - Michigan, UNLV, and Washington State - coming to teams with a combined 14-4 mark. After Friday's trip to Reno, three of Fresno State's final four Mountain West games take place at home.
Fresno State holds a 32-22-1 series edge over Nevada. The Bulldogs have won the last three meetings versus the Wolf Pack.
Fresno State at Nevada
Location: Mackay Stadium in Reno, Nev.
Kickoff: Friday, Oct. 18 at 10:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS Sports Network
Spread: Fresno State -3
Over/Under: 50.5
Announcers: John Sadak and Taylor McHargue
Why Fresno State Will Win
The Bulldogs have scored under 20 points in back-to-back games, but this unit still has a ton of firepower. Quarterback Mikey Keene (1,576 passing yards and eight scores) ranked as one of the top signal-callers in the Mountain West this preseason and has room to improve after tossing eight picks through the first six games.
Although Keene needs to play better and cut down on the mistakes, this offense has the potential to take off against a Nevada defense ranked sixth in the Mountain West in pass efficiency defense and allowing 6.1 yards a snap. The Wolf Pack rank 105th nationally in defensive pass success rate, so if Keene limits the mistakes and has time to throw behind a shaky line, receivers Mac Dalena (26 catches), Jalen Moss (24), and Raylen Sharpe (31)
With No. 1 running back Malik Sherrod (196 yards) injured, Elijah Gilliam (295 yards) will handle the main duties on the ground game.
Outside of allowing 8.04 yards a play to UNLV on Sept. 28, Fresno State's defense has held up well in '24. The Bulldogs limit teams to 5.2 yards a play and only one opponent has scored more than 31 points on this group. The strength of Nevada's offense is with its ground attack, but Fresno State will counter with a rush defense that has limited five of its first six opponents to less than 150 yards on the ground.
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Why Nevada Will Win
Although Nevada fell short in a couple of games this year, it's clear Choate and his staff have brought drastic improvement to both sides of the ball. And with this game in Reno, and momentum for the team off an upset over Oregon State last week, the Wolf Pack are catching Fresno State at the right time with back-to-back defeats.
Nevada quarterback Brendon Lewis has showed massive growth from his '23 production, completing 67.1 percent of his passes (up from 55.5 percent) and adding 513 yards and four scores on the ground. Lewis' ability to churn out yardage on the ground was instrumental in last week's victory, as he tallied 151 yards and a score over nine carries.
In addition to Lewis, Texas transfer Savion Red (593 yards and seven scores) and Pat Garwo III (230 yards) will look to pound Fresno State's rush defense.
Nevada's defense is still a work in progress (No. 116 nationally in success rate), but Choate's group doesn't give up much in the way of big plays (just four of 40-plus yards allowed).
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Final Analysis
Are these two teams headed in opposite directions at the midway point of the season? Fresno State has lost two in a row, while Nevada can build momentum after last week's win over Oregon State. Stopping the Wolf Pack's ground attack is crucial to the Bulldogs' hope of a road win, while Keene has to cut down on the mistakes. This one is close, but a slight edge goes to Nevada.
Prediction: Nevada 27, Fresno State 24
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