Predictions, keys to watch as Lions take on Vikings in Week 7
By Tommy Wiita,
6 hours ago
The Detroit Lions (4-1) will face their toughest matchup of the season as they take on the Minnesota Vikings (5-0) at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday.
The Lions are coming off a 47-9 blowout win over the Dallas Cowboys last week but lost their defensive leader — edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson — to a season-ending injury. The Vikings had a bye last week and will be coming out of it fresh, for the most part.
The Lions' lone loss of the year remains against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2, as they've otherwise won every other game with relative ease.
The Vikings have the edge with the all-time series record, boasting an 80-43-2 record heading into Sunday's matchup. However, the Lions have won three consecutive contests against Minnesota, most recently by a score of 30-20 at Ford Field on Jan. 7, 2024 — when Detroit clinched the NFC North title.
Here's a look at some matchups, keys to watch and predictions between two of the best teams heading into Week 7.
Why I'm Confident
Josh: Lions Pass Rush
According to Pro Football Focus, entering this week, Detroit’s Alim McNeill and Levi Onwuzurike are two of the top 16 interior defensive linemen in pressures so far this season.
McNeill also is ninth in pass-rush win rate at his position, a metric in which the Lions rank sixth in the league through six weeks.
Meanwhile, only three guards have given up more pressures than Vikings right guard Ed Ingram, and only one center has given up more than Vikings center Garrett Bradbury.
The Lions may not have Aidan Hutchinson, who broke his leg last weekend, but they still have plenty of pass rushing ability to give teams — including the Vikings — problems.
It’ll also be important the Lions make Darnold uncomfortable, as his passer rating under pressure (79.9, 10th in NFL) isn’t bad but is far worse than when kept clean (113.0, fourth in NFL).
Yes, Detroit will be going up against a talented Vikings defense on Sunday. But the offense has been clicking as of late.
Quarterback Jared Goff has been on fire the past three weeks, posting a collective 146.6 passer rating — the highest mark among any other quarterback in the league in that time frame.
Last week against the Cowboys, Goff became the first Lions quarterback since Dave Krieg in 1994 to throw for over 300 passing yards, at least three touchdown passes and a 150-plus passer rating.
During the Lions' current winning streak, Goff is 54-for-66 (81.8%) with seven touchdowns, one pick and 268.7 passing yards per game.
The Lions have a multitude of offensive weapons at their disposal, creating potential matchup problems despite going up against one of the best defenses in the league.
Detroit's offense in comparison to the Vikings' could also win in a shootout, on paper anyways.
Why I'm Concerned
Josh: Minnesota's Offense
The Vikings have been up-and-down on offense this season and have struggled over the last game-and-a-half coming into this one.
However, the team still is averaging the sixth-most points per game and has a dangerous receiving corps that will try to take advantage of Detroit’s corners.
Carlton Davis III was phenomenal against CeeDee Lamb and the Cowboys, surrendering just three catches for 23 yards, good for a 59.7 passer rating against and the third-best coverage grade among corners in the NFL last weekend, per PFF. In the other four games, he’s given up a 101.5 passer rating and is just 41st in PFF coverage grade, and Detroit’s other corners are worse.
The Lions secondary has to be able to hold up on Sunday, which will be a tough task.
Tommy: Lions Injuries
Detroit has a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
Aside from Hutchinson, which is a massive loss, Marcus Davenport, Kyle Peko, Derrick Barnes, Ifeatu Melifonwu, David Bada, John Cominsky, Brodric Martin, and Emmanuel Moseley are all on injured reserve.
Specifically affecting pass rushers, that could be the difference for Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold.
The Lions have been able to succeed without many of the names listed but it will be interesting to see the defense's dynamic without Hutchinson this week.
As noted above, the Lions still have a lot of pass rushing ability, even without Hutchinson, and Minnesota has particularly struggled with interior pressure.
On the ground, the Vikings have been productive so far this season but couldn’t get anything going against the New York Jets after Aaron Jones got hurt.
It’s still unclear if Jones will play this weekend — even if he does, he could be limited — and Detroit has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game so far this season.
Meanwhile, the Vikings have also been elite at pressuring opposing quarterbacks and stifling opposing rushing attacks — Minnesota has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game — but the Lions present a different challenge.
Against Green Bay, the league’s second-best rushing attack, the Vikings built a 28-0 lead, which forced the Packers to basically abandon the run. The Lions will pound the rock on Sunday and see if Minnesota can hold up.
The battle in the trenches on both sides may determine the outcome on Sunday.
Tommy: Lions Offense vs. Vikings Defense
Lightning will meet thunder this weekend at U.S. Bank Stadium in the forms of the Lions offense and the Vikings defense.
Detroit ranks fourth in the NFL in passer rating (107.6), third in completion percentage (71.6%), first in passing yards per attempt (9), second in 40+ passing yard plays (6), tied for fourth in 20+ passing yard plays (19), and the offensive line has allowed only 10 sacks, tied for fourth-fewest in the league.
The run game has been the anchor as well. The Lions have the third-most rushing touchdowns (9), fifth-highest rushes for a first down and fifth-highest rushing yards per attempt (4.8).
They'll be up against a Vikings defense that's allowed the lowest passer rating in the league (70.3) and the sixth-fewest yards per passing attempt (6.3). Minnesota also leads the NFL with a 32.6% pressure rate and a third-best 20 sacks.
The Vikings also have the most passes defended (41) and interceptions (11) as well.
Pair that with the best rushing defense in the NFL, the Lions will have their hands full on Sunday. Get ready for an epic battle.
All Eyes On
Josh: Turnover Battle
The Lions are suddenly tied for fifth in the NFL in turnover differential after finishing plus-five against Dallas last weekend. The Vikings, meanwhile, are seventh, but the teams have done it in very different ways.
Detroit has just four giveaways, tied for fourth-fewest in the league. The Vikings are tied for the sixth-most giveaways but also the second-most takeaways.
Both of these teams are undefeated this season when at least breaking even in turnover margin and the Vikings are 22-0 in such games under head coach Kevin O’Connell.
Turnovers will be key on Sunday.
Tommy: Lions Pass Rush
Who steps up in Hutchinson's absence? And how much of an effect will it have against Minnesota?
The Lions still have defensive tackle Alim McNeill, who signed a four-year extension this week. But they'll need someone else to step up in the meantime as the team considers trade deals ahead of the deadline.
For the Vikings game, the Lions will have to rely on McNeill, Josh Paschal, DJ Reader, Levi Onwuzurike, James Houston, Mekhi Wingo, and Isaiah Thomas on the defensive line.
The Lions have yet to allow a quarterback to throw for a passer rating above 91, but that was thanks in part to Hutchinson, who lead the league with 45 pressures through five games. The Lions' next closest? Onwuzurike with 17 pressures.
The biggest question — for Week 7, at least — is can the Lions pass rush still present problems for the opposing offense.
Prediction
Josh: 30-27 Vikings
The Lions are coming off a huge win but also the huge loss of Aidan Hutchinson. Head coach Dan Campbell and the team won’t ever use injuries as an excuse, but in a game between two really good teams, that can absolutely be the difference. That, combined with the Vikings being at home, leads me to believe the Vikings will pull this one out on a late field goal.
Tommy: Vikings 38-35
This could very well be a shootout and the Lions could come out on top still. However, losing Hutchinson is a major loss and could prove to be the difference on Sunday. However, things could change if the Vikings are without running back Aaron Jones, but I'm going with Minnesota in this NFC matchup.
Season Records
Josh: 4-1
Tommy: 4-1
Dec 24, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) and Minnesota Vikings wide receiver K.J. Osborn (17) shake hands after the game at U.S. Bank Stadium. With the win the Detroit Lions clinched the NFC North.
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