Brief thoughts: Auburn basketball outlook following summer practices

Auburn basketball wrapped up summer practices last Friday. Next up, some time off before the team comes back together in September in preparation for the season and a monster non-conference schedule before SEC play begins.

How did summer workouts go? Who is standing out? After speaking with sources around the program, let’s dive into it.

In case you missed it, here were some early summer practice thoughts from the end of June.

— First, a quick comment on NIL. Estimates have Auburn around the $3 million mark in terms of NIL resources committed to the basketball roster heading into the season. Where does that stack up in the SEC? Maybe middle of the pack, slightly higher, is what I’m told. For reference, Alabama is at around $6 million for their roster I’m told, and other teams like Kentucky, Arkansas and Tennessee are all outspending Auburn. Bruce Pearl and Co. are making it work right now, but next year will be interesting. The roster turnover could lead to quite a bit of necessary spending that Auburn’s NIL infrastructure needs to be ready for.

— Second, I still expect the Houston and Ohio State games to be announced soon. The Houston game will be played at the Toyota Center and the Ohio State game will be played at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. I’ve reported that for awhile now and nothing has changed. The most recent report on these games was on July 21, with the Houston game happening in early November and the Ohio State game happening in mid-December. Scheduling these games is an effort to keep Auburn as relevant as possible and on a national stage.

— Now, on to summer practice…

— JP Pegues was brought in from Furman to start at point guard and while he’s been good so far, he hasn’t been great. Pegues is a good shooter, but hasn’t quite caught fire yet. Pegues is an upgrade over Tre Donaldson and Aden Holloway, mainly because of his defense and experience, but I think it’s safe to say he doesn’t have the starting point guard spot locked down. Finishing around the rim, being more aggressive will be things Pegues needs to focus on as the season gets closer. I’ll add, Pegues had one of the best winning percentages among all players in all scrimmages during the summer. So, his teams won.

— Could Denver Jones start at point guard? The short answer is yes. But, Jones has never been asked to play point guard for 15-ish minutes per game. Is he ready for that? That’s unknown. He’s been decent in practices, he’s been the best defensive rebounder among the guards, and his assist-to-turnover ratio has been good. Pegues’ assist-to-turnover ratio has been good, too.

— Miles Kelly has a chance to be “special,” I’m told. And if you missed my 1-on-1 with Kelly, check it out. Great young man, great teammate, and potentially great player. Kelly shot 45 percent from three during summer scrimmages with over 40 attempts, best on the team. Like Pegues, Kelly had a great winning percentage during scrimmages. He had the best FG percentage among guards during scrimmages, had an exceptional free-throw percentage during summer scrimmages, not missing one attempt, and has a real chance to be the best player on the team. Outside of Johni Broome , Kelly is likely to start when the season begins. I think penciling in Broome and Kelly in the starting rotation is a safe bet.

— Which Chad Baker-Mazara will show up? From February on, starting the last nine games, Baker-Mazara was really good. In the early parts of last season, he was a bit inconsistent. That’s going to be a real key for Auburn. Baker-Mazara doesn’t have a starting spot locked up yet. He could start at three, or he could come off the bench. A lot depends on not only Baker-Mazara being consistent on and off the court, but how the rest of the guards play and how those rotations might look. He has continued to be an elite free-throw shooter during the summer, missing just one attempt during competition. He rebounds well, as he was the second-best defensive rebounder among the guards behind Jones. Baker-Mazara draws fouls at a high rate, and he had a very good assist-to-turnover ratio, with a team-low in turnovers during competition.

— Auburn has four starters in Pegues, Kelly, Jones and Baker-Mazara. How Pearl and his staff figure out rotations will be interesting. It doesn’t necessarily matter who starts in terms of potential minutes, but it matters to the individual player. All four of those guys want to start and expect to start, but only three likely will. That will be something the staff will have to manage a little bit.

— It could easily be Pegues, Jones and Kelly starting…or it could be Pegues, Kelly and Baker-Mazara…or it could be Jones, Kelly and Baker-Mazara. The one common denominator is Kelly, but the other three are still competing for a starting spot.

— As for the freshmen, Tahaad Pettiford is special, and Jahki Howard has been really good, too. Both have been as advertised, with Howard maybe even being better than originally anticipated.

— Pettiford is a fantastic scorer and is still projected to spend most of his time at the two-guard position. He’s a little small for that position, but he’s so quick, so explosive, and such a good scorer, he’s going to get his chances to make things happen. Pettiford was the second-best three-point shooter during live competition this summer, behind only Kelly, and missed only one free-throw attempt. Pettiford led the team in assists during scrimmages, but also led the team in turnovers. That’s to be expected to some degree from a freshman. “He isn’t afraid,” I’m told. Among the guards, Pettiford led the team in steals as well. He’s tough, and isn’t afraid to voice his opinion and communicate, that’s for sure. Pettiford isn’t likely to start, but when he gets in the game, he absolutely has the green light to score.

— Howard is a human highlight reel, has shown the mechanics of being a good shooter from outside, but needs to find more consistency. Like Pettiford, Howard is tough, but emotional. That’s not a bad thing, but just some context. He isn’t backing down from anything or anyone. He’s passionate, is what I’d say.

— Looking at things at this moment, it will be critical to bring Pettiford and Howard back. They are the immediate future of the program.

— As for Chris Moore , he looks more like an insurance piece at this point. There aren’t many fifth-year players out there, so Moore has real value for Auburn. He’s played a ton of basketball and knows the ins and outs of the scheme. But with the emergence of Howard, Moore looks more like a 10th or 11th man right now.

— Nobody is replacing Jaylin Williams , who is now competing for a spot with the Denver Nuggets. Pearl decided not to try and “replace” Williams, thus giving more potential opportunities to Chaney Johnson , Broome and Dylan Cardwell . Johnson has been good, not great, while Ja’Heim Hudson might be one of the best “surprises” of summer workouts. Johnson has been the best defensive rebounder among the “bigs,” along with Broome. Hudson continues to show toughness that will be good for this team, and believe it or not, Hudson was the best three-point shooter among the big men during competition, shooting just over 40 percent from three on limited shot attempts. He absolutely has the spot-up three in his repertoire. “Turtle” will be aggressive, even if he only gets 10 minutes per game. He also had the best winning percentage among big men during summer scrimmages.

— Cardwell and Broome will play together this year. How much? That’s yet to be determined. There have been instances where both played together during scrimmages. Is Broome going to speed his game up enough to play power forward? If he can play faster, and allow Cardwell to play center, they can play more together. Cardwell led all big men in steals during scrimmages and led the team in blocked shots, too. Cardwell also had the best FG percentage among the big men, and was the best offensive rebounder among big men. Broome had the best winning percentage in scrimmages among big men, along with Hudson.

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