The National Hurricane Center is tracking five disturbances in the Atlantic. All have a low chance of developing over the next seven days.
One system in the Gulf of Mexico has a 30% chance of developing in the next week, according to the latest advisory. Two disturbances have a 20% chance, and another two have a 10% chance. One of the disturbances with a 10% chance of developing is just off the Texas coast.
The tropical waves the Hurricane Center highlighted on its tropical outlook map are located:
- In the northwest Gulf of Mexico
- Over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of Mexico
- In the northwestern Atlantic
- In the central Atlantic
- In the eastern Atlantic
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Tropical disturbance tracker: Will any impact Texas?
The system near the coasts of Louisiana and Texas is expected to bring heavy rainfall across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or so. From Friday to Saturday, the main heavy rain zone will focus on northern Florida, the southern portions of Alabama and Georgia and the South Carolina coast, according to AccuWeather.
Aside from heavy rainfall, it is too soon to determine if there will be any impact to Texas or the U.S. from the tropical waves.
Northwest Gulf of Mexico: A trough of low pressure is producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, including near the coasts of Louisiana and Texas.
Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development by Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches the system.
Although development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or so.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: Low, 10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: Low, 10 percent.
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased slightly with a westward-moving tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea.
Significant development appears unlikely before the system reaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula by early Friday.
Some development is possible late in the weekend into early next week after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
- Formation chance through 48 hours : Near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days : Low, 30 percent.
Northwestern Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the northeast and east of its center.
This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern U.S. Once the low moves over cooler waters by late Saturday, further subtropical development is not expected.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
- Formation chance through seven days: low, 20 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while it drifts northwestward or northward.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
- Formation chance through seven days: low, 20 percent .
Central Tropical Atlantic: Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development of this system during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
By early next week, environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow development while the system moves west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
- Formation chance through 48 hours : Low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days : Low, 10 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a storm is named, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
How many named storms have hit in 2024?
So far, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has seen five named storms:
- Tropical Storm Alberto : Made landfall on the Texas coast in June 2024 with some flooding, impacting the region less than initially forecasted.
- Hurricane Beryl : Hit the Texas coast on July 8 as a Category 1 hurricane near Matagorda, causing at least 38 deaths and setting records for tornado spin-offs.
- Tropical Storm Chris : Brought heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of Mexico in early July.
- Hurricane Debby : Made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida, on August 5, and caused severe damage along the East Coast, resulting in at least 10 fatalities.
- Hurricane Ernesto : Struck Puerto Rico on August 24 with significant flooding, then hit Bermuda. It was a moderately strong hurricane with three indirect fatalities.
What is La Niña?
La Niña − "little girl" in Spanish − is the climate phenomenon that describes projected when the surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean near the equator are lower than the long-term average. El Niño – "little boy" in Spanish, her brother – is a climate phenomenon that results from those waters being warmer than usual.
The lower surface temperatures could mean warmer, drier weather throughout the southern region of the U.S. and the potential for a "hyperactive" hurricane season in the Atlantic basin this year .
Hurricane storm tracker: See active storms in the Atlantic
Texas weather watches and warnings
A warning means that conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A watch means that conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: National Hurricane Center now tracking 5 tropical waves, Texas to see heavy rainfall
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