NHC tracking tropical wave in Gulf of Mexico with 60% chance for development

The National Hurricane Center is tracking two disturbances early Saturday morning in a more defined weather outlook after tracking up to five tropical disturbances earlier this week .

A tropical wave in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has a 60 percent chance of formation over the next seven days, while a second disturbance over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic may experience slow development through the early part of next week, with a 30 percent chance of formation.

No named storms have formed since Aug. 12 despite predictions for a hyperactive season . The season typically peaks around Sept. 10 , but that leaves 12 weeks to go until it ends Dec. 1.

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“From our perspective right now, things are still on track,” said Dan Harnos, a meteorologist with the team at the Climate Prediction Center who prepares the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal outlook.

If the wave in the Gulf of Mexico forms into a tropical storm, it will be named Francine.

Here's what we know so far:

NHC tracking new tropical disturbance with 60% chance of development

According to the NHC, a tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward to northward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

• Formation chance through 48 hours, 40 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days, 60 percent.

The NHC also tracks "an elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic," which is producing thunderstorms in the area.

• Formation chance through 48 hours, near 0 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days, 30 percent.

More: Where are all those predicted hurricanes? Experts fear they're still coming.

Will Texas be impacted? See path of potential Tropical Storm Francine

Early forecasts indicate that most of Mexico's coastline is currently being monitored by the NHC. It's too early to determine its path.

How many named storms have hit in 2024?

So far, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has seen five named storms:

• Tropical Storm Alberto : Made landfall on the Texas coast in June 2024 with some flooding, impacting the region less than initially forecasted.
• Hurricane Beryl : Hit the Texas coast on July 8 as a Category 1 hurricane near Matagorda, causing at least 38 deaths and setting records for tornado spin-offs.
• Tropical Storm Chris : Brought heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of Mexico in early July.
• Hurricane Debby : Made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida, on August 5, and caused severe damage along the East Coast, resulting in at least 10 fatalities.
• Hurricane Ernesto : Struck Puerto Rico on August 24 with significant flooding, then hit Bermuda. It was a moderately strong hurricane with three indirect fatalities.

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— USA TODAY reporter Dinah Voyles Pulver contributed to this report.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: NHC tracking tropical wave in Gulf of Mexico with 60% chance for development