NHC: Potential Tropical Storm Francine could be heading toward Texas coast by midweek

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A tropical wave in the western Gulf of Mexico is more likely to become a tropical storm, the National Hurricane Center said in a tropical weather forecast Sunday.

The wave has a 90% chance of formation over the next seven days, while chances of development for two other disturbances over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic have increased between 50% and 70%.

No named storms have formed since Aug. 12 despite predictions for a hyperactive season . The season typically peaks around Sept. 10 , but that leaves 12 weeks to go until it ends Dec. 1.

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Here's what we know so far:

90% chance of tropical storm forming in Gulf of Mexico

Editor's note: The story was updated to reflect the latest weather outlook by the National Hurricane Center, which shows increased potential for tropical storm formatio n.

According to the National Hurricane Center's outlook Sunday afternoon, a tropical storm is expected to form in the Gulf during the next day or so as the system moves generally northwestward and then northward near or along the coasts of Mexico, Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: 90%.
• Formation chance through 7 days: 90%.

The hurricane center is also tracking activity over the central tropical Atlantic. Conditions appear conducive for additional development of that system, and a tropical depression is likely to form as it begins to move generally westward at around 10 mph through the rest of the week, the center said.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: 60%.
• Formation chance through 7 days: 70%.

A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move very little during the next couple of days until it potentially interacts with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions thereafter are expected to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle or latter part of the week while the system begins moving slowly west-northwestward.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: 0%.
• Formation chance through 7 days: 50%.

More: Where are all those predicted hurricanes? Experts fear they're still coming.

Will Texas be affected? See path of potential Tropical Storm Francine

Early forecasts indicate that a tropical depression could form in the next couple of days and move north along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of the week.

How many named storms have hit in 2024?

So far, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has seen five named storms:

• Tropical Storm Alberto : Made landfall on the Texas coast in June 2024 with some flooding, impacting the region less than initially forecasted.
• Hurricane Beryl : Hit the Texas coast July 8 as a Category 1 hurricane near Matagorda, causing at least 38 deaths and setting records for tornado spin-offs.
• Tropical Storm Chris : Brought heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of Mexico in early July.
• Hurricane Debby : Made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida, on Aug. 5, and caused severe damage along the East Coast, resulting in at least 10 fatalities.
• Hurricane Ernesto : Struck Puerto Rico on Aug. 24 with significant flooding, then hit Bermuda. It was a moderately strong hurricane with three indirect fatalities.

If the wave in the Gulf of Mexico forms into a tropical storm, it will be named Francine.

Spaghetti models for potential Tropical Storm Francine in Gulf of Mexico

Texas weather watches and warnings

Watches could be required for portions of the western Gulf coast later today or tonight, according to the NHC.

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Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

USA TODAY reporter Dinah Voyles Pulver contributed to this report.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: NHC: Potential Tropical Storm Francine could be heading toward Texas coast by midweek