Tropical Storm Francine named, to bring heavy rain to Texas: See path, spaghetti models

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Tropical Storm Francine has become the sixth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. It is expected to become Hurricane Francine by Wednesday, bringing potentially life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds to the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts.

Francine is moving slowly toward the coast with 50 mph sustained winds and higher gusts. Forecasters predict the storm will take a turn to the northeast to the northwestern or northern Gulf coast with a burst of speed by late Wednesday and it's expected to become Hurricane Francine by landfall.

See: Hurricane tracker: Projected path of Potential Tropical Storm Francine in Gulf of Mexico

No named storms have formed since Aug. 12 despite predictions for a hyperactive season . The season typically peaks around Sept. 10 , but that leaves 12 weeks to go until it ends Dec. 1.

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Here's what we know from the NHC's 10 a.m. advisory.

NHC: Tropical Storm Francine develops in Gulf of Mexico, likely to become hurricane by mid-week

According to the NHC's 10 a.m. weather outlook Monday, the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is now Tropical Storm Francine. It is forecast to make landfall on the upper Texas coast and Louisiana coastline late Wednesday, becoming Hurricane Francine.

"Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding along the coast of far northeast Mexico, portions of the southernmost Texas coast, the Upper Texas Coast, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning," the advisory states. "A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning."

The NHC is also tracking activity over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form as it begins to move generally westward at around 10 mph through the rest of the week, the NHC said.

Its winds are well above the 39 mph threshold for a tropical storm, but the system isn't organized enough to be named.

Will Texas be impacted? See projected path of Tropical Storm Francine

Tropical Storm Francine may bring 4 to 8 inches of rain with localized amounts of up to 12 inches and a risk of flash flooding in parts of southern Texas, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi, the NHC said. Swells generated by this system are already affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek, likely bringing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Most of Texas' Gulf coast is now under a tropical storm watch, with a flood watch also issued for the southernmost portion. The NHC issued a hurricane watch for Cameron County and eastward to Grand Isle in Louisiana.

• WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning Tuesday.
• RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of the southern Texas Coast and across southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall would lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding.
• STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Mexico coast in areas of onshore winds.
• SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

NHC tracking two other systems in the Atlantic

Also, an area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is expected to form while the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. By the middle of the week, the system should begin move westward-northwestward at around 10 mph.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 60 percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days: high, 70 percent.

A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. In a couple of days this trough is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave. Thereafter, Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near zero percent.
• Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 60 percent.

Where is Potential Tropical Storm Francine?

As of Monday morning, Tropical Storm Francine was NNW of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. See key details of the system:

• Location: About 305 mi (495 km) SSE of the mouth of the Rio Grande; about 545 mi (875 km) S of Cameron, Louisiana
• Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 mph (85 km/h)
• Present Movement: NNW or 340 degrees at 5 mph (7 km/h)
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb (29.62 inches)

Tropical Storm Francine spaghetti models

Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

How many named storms have hit in 2024?

So far, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has seen five named storms:

• Tropical Storm Alberto : Made landfall on the Texas coast in June 2024 with some flooding, impacting the region less than initially forecasted.
• Hurricane Beryl : Hit the Texas coast on July 8 as a Category 1 hurricane near Matagorda, causing at least 38 deaths and setting records for tornado spin-offs.
• Tropical Storm Chris : Brought heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of Mexico in early July.
• Hurricane Debby : Made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida, on August 5, and caused severe damage along the East Coast, resulting in at least 10 fatalities.
• Hurricane Ernesto : Struck Puerto Rico on August 24 with significant flooding, then hit Bermuda. It was a moderately strong hurricane with three indirect fatalities.

Hurricane tracker: See active storms in the Atlantic

Texas weather watches and warnings

• A storm surge watch has been issued from east of High Island, Texas, eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain.
• A hurricane watch has been issued from Cameron, Lousiana eastward to Grand Isle.
• A tropical storm watch has been issued east of High Island to Cameron and from Grand Isle to the mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

A warning means that conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A watch means that conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

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— USA TODAY Network reporters C.A. Bridges and Cheryl McCloud contributed to this report.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Tropical Storm Francine named, to bring heavy rain to Texas: See path, spaghetti models