NHC: Tropical system in Gulf of Mexico now has 50% chance of formation. See Texas impact

The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows that the chances of a tropical storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico have now increased.

While an area of low pressure is expected to develop over the next day or two, Hurricane Kirk intensifies to a Category 4 storm in the Atlantic with maximum sustained winds of nearly 140 mph.

Hurricane activity has picked up after a brief lull in August, with three named storms forming since Helene's landfall , which resulted in at least 128 deaths, with hundreds still missing.

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Here is what we know about potential tropical disturbances.

NHC tracking tropical system in Gulf of Mexico with 50% chance of formation

According to the NHC's p.m. weather advisory, a broad area of low pressure is expected to develop from this system over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two, and additional subsequent development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: Low, near 0%.
• Formation chance through 7 days: Medium, 50%.

Is a hurricane heading to Texas?

Regardless of tropical or subtropical development in the Gulf of Mexico, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week, the NHC said in their advisory.

While Hurricane Kirk is expected to remain over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, impacts could be felt as far as the East Coast of the United States by Sunday.

Hurricane tracker: NHC tracking Hurricane Kirk, Tropical Storm Leslie and one other disturbance

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— USA TODAY Network reporters Lexi Simmerman and Cheryl McCloud contributed to this report.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: NHC: Tropical system in Gulf of Mexico now has 50% chance of formation. See Texas impact