Atlantic is highly active with hurricanes, tropical storms in 2024. Is La Niña to blame?

After a slow start, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has intensified, with a recent surge in activity, including the two major hurricanes that barreled through the southeastern United States, Helene and Milton.

This pattern aligns with early-season forecasts predicting a potentially record-breaking year , with expectations of 17 to 24 named storms, eight to 13 of which could become hurricanes. For comparison, a typical season averages 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes.

To date, the 2024 season has recorded 13 named storms , with nine developing into hurricanes, including four classified as major hurricanes at Category 3 or higher.

Early forecasts linked this year's heightened hurricane activity to the potential emergence of La Niña, a natural climate phenomenon known to influence storm patterns.

However, La Niña has not officially developed, complicating the understanding of this season’s unusual progression— a slow start, a midsummer lull with no storm activity in July, followed by a sudden surge in recent weeks.

What is La Niña?

La Niña is a climate pattern characterized by cooler-than-average seawater in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It occurs when the water temperature cools at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit below average for three consecutive months.

La Niña, meaning "little girl" in Spanish, contrasts with its counterpart, El Niño, or "little boy," which describes the opposite conditions — warmer-than-average Pacific waters. Both patterns significantly influence U.S. weather, especially during late fall, winter and early spring.

The cooler surface temperatures associated with La Niña can result in warmer, drier weather across the southern U.S., including Texas. When La Niña is in effect, it often contributes to an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic basin due to favorable conditions for storm development.

More: NOAA's 2024-2025 winter forecast maps: What does La Niña mean for Texas?

When is La Niña expected to emerge?

Despite early predictions, La Niña has n ot officially developed this season . The Pacific remains in an ENSO-neutral state, though certain La Niña-like conditions have been observed, such as cooler water temperatures along the equator near the South American coast.

The Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, estimating a 60% chance that conditions will emerge by the end of November. If they do develop, La Niña is expected to be short-lived, persisting only through January to March 2025, mostly influencing weather patterns this winter.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Atlantic is highly active with hurricanes, tropical storms in 2024. Is La Niña to blame?