Down-ballot races could feel effect of weakened Biden campaign, analysts say

President Joe Biden is down in the polls, and some analysts say weak enthusiasm for his campaign could hurt down-ballot races, including in Georgia. One of those candidates is urging the president to end his bid and make room for a new nominee.

Why it matters: Georgia Democrats earlier this year expressed fears that, without the help of other high-stakes races on the ballot, Biden might not get the progressive voter turnout boost here like he did in 2020.

The latest: Jaha Howard, the Democratic nominee for the Cobb County Commission's toss-up district that includes Smyrna, Vinings and East Cobb, told Axios that Biden should drop out of the race while there's time to choose another candidate.

• Howard, a former Cobb board of education member, says he considers Trump an existential threat to democracy. He doesn't want the county to lose its gains due to concerns about the top of the ticket.
• "The debate is the culminating event that helped everybody see it all at the same time," Howard said. "We can't pretend that we did not all see and hear what we witnessed."

State of play: Roughly half of the elected officials, fundraisers, labor activists and party faithful selected as Georgia delegates for August's Democratic National Convention in Chicago told the AJC they're backing Biden.

• The news outlet contacted all 109 delegates representing Georgia. Of the 50 who agreed to an interview, all but two expressed support; Fulton County Commissioner Marvin Arrington Jr. pledged to vote for "a piece of wood or a rock" over Trump.
• The two delegates who wanted Biden to drop out of the race spoke on condition of anonymity. Both said they did not think the party could change course.
• Meanwhile, a "broad consensus" of delegates said they'd support Vice President Kamala Harris if Biden volunteered to step out of the race, the AJC reports.

What we're watching: If Biden remains in the race, down-ballot candidates might have reason to be concerned about weakened enthusiasm for his campaign, University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock told Axios.

Here's why: Political scientists have noted that general election voters are increasingly casting party-line ballots rather than judging individual candidates, Bullock says.

• Democratic U.S. Rep. Sanford Bishop, who has represented his red southwest Georgia district for 16 terms thanks to strong ties with agricultural leaders, is a good example of a so-called "personal" vote.
• If Biden is viewed as weak or fails to generate excitement, Bullock says, voters could opt to vote just for Trump or straight down the ballot for Republicans, or simply stay home.

The big picture: "If you come from a solid Democratic district, you're not worried about this," Bullock says. "If it's marginal, say you're a Democratic challenger looking to flip a district on the northside of Atlanta… yeah, this could be a problem for you."

The other side: Georgia's congressional delegation is still behind the president, and the Biden campaign opened its 16th Georgia field office in Decatur on July 6.

• "This election, whether it's top of the ticket or a state election, will be decided on the issues that matter most to voters, which is why Democrats will win this November up and down the ballot," Porshalain White, the Biden campaign's Georgia state director, told Axios in a statement.

Threat level: On Monday, Cook Political Report moved Georgia, Nevada and Arizona from toss-up states to "lean R."

• The only toss-up states remaining, the analysts say, are the "Blue Wall": Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

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