Chicago could avoid new migrant crisis ahead of the DNC

President Biden's executive order restricting southern border crossings has kept new migrant arrivals to Chicago low, and city leaders are cautiously optimistic it could stay that way.

Why it matters: For at least a year Chicago officials have warned that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott could try to overwhelm city services with new busloads of migrants ahead of the Democratic National Convention this month.

What they're saying: "We don't know what that person running Texas is going to do in terms of rounding people up and sending them to us but we've got multiple systems in place," Mayor Brandon Johnson's chief of staff Cristina Pacione-Zayas said at an interview show hosted by Politico Thursday night at the Hideout.

State of play: Last month deputy mayor for immigration issues Beatríz Ponce de Leon told Axios that officials are still preparing for up to 25,000 new arrivals ahead of the convention, especially after Abbott warned during a speech at the Republican National Convention that he would keep sending buses.

Reality check: As of Thursday, Chicago migrant shelters housed just 5,596 people, one of the lowest numbers the city has seen in more than a year.

• Last August, shelters and police stations housed 6,758 people and by January it was close to 15,000.

Yes but: The city's 60-day stay policy has helped lower shelter numbers.

• Some alders have asked to loosen the policy, citing barriers migrants face in finding housing and jobs.
• Ald. Jessie Fuentes says some migrants who've had to leave shelters have moved to a growing tent encampment in Humboldt Park.

The intrigue: Pacione-Zayas says some migrants are still coming to Chicago but most are relocating "from other states: mainly Texas, California, New York and Colorado, but also Louisiana, Ohio and New Mexico."

What's next: Legal challenges to Biden's executive orders restricting migration could be heard as early as this fall.

• City officials believe that a repeal of those orders paired with potential increased Venezuelan outmigration spurred by the contested re-election of President Nicolás Maduro, could spur another wave of new arrivals to Chicago.