Poll: Should Illinois actually be two states?

Last week we asked readers to weigh in on the movement to split Cook County from the rest of Illinois, a non-binding question on seven county ballots this November.

The intrigue: The vote was close, but a majority of you voted against creating two states.

Context: The state's political divide isn't new, as Cook County Democrats and downstate Republicans have fought over controlling Illinois for years.

• In 2022, gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey spent part of his campaign maligning Chicago .

Yes, but: Though this movement seems political in nature, organizers of the ballot referendum say it's not.

What they're saying: "It's more of a cultural divide," Loret Newlin from the Illinois Separation Referendum tells Axios.

• "The movement is about the state of Illinois' constitutional violations over representation. We aren't feeling represented in our state government."

Reality check: Most Illinois counties vote Republican, but the vast majority of the state's population lives in the Chicago area — which votes overwhelmingly Democratic.

• Because of the population imbalance, the northern area of the state has more seats in the Illinois General Assembly and pushes the state blue in presidential elections.

Zoom in: Newlin says most people wrongly associate their movement with identity politics, which leads to stereotypes. That's why organizers stay away from the word "secession," instead focusing on the word "separation."

• "When people hear the word secession, they don't think of the definition of formal withdrawal, they think of the Confederacy," Newlin tells Axios. "That's definitely not what this is."

Between the lines: Newlin also pushes back on the notion that this movement is motivated by "sour grapes" or Republicans' minority party status. They kept the movement going when Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner was in office.

Yes, but: Rauner lived in Winnetka, which is in Cook County.

State of play: The movement is real and gaining steam. If the seven counties vote for separating from Cook County, that will make 33 (out of 102) that have voted in favor since 2020.

Reality check: There is a long way to go for such a split to happen. It would require approval from the Democratic majority in the state legislature and then federal approval from Congress.

• "It's kind of like getting a divorce. It will take a lot of time and there are details that have to be worked out," Newlin says.
• "But what's the use in spending a huge amount of time and money trying to work out those details before you know whether people want the divorce or not?"