How heat could affect fall foliage in the D.C. region

Record-breaking heat over the summer and a warmer-than-average fall could shorten and dull the fall foliage season.

Why it matters: Leaf-peeping is a favorite fall activity in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, but climate change can impact when leaves turn and how bright they get.

The big picture: According to the NWS' Climate Prediction Center, the September-through-November period is likely to feature above-average temperatures across much of the country, particularly in the Northeast and Southwest.

• This comes after a summer of record-breaking temperatures in the D.C. area and beyond. Just last Wednesday, local temperatures reached 101°F — breaking a previous August record high of 99°F from 1948.

Zoom in: The region's summer drought and excessive heat have been major stressors for trees. "Many will change to yellow early or go almost straight brown," Ellen Powell, conservation education coordinator at the Virginia Department of Forestry, tells Axios. Some species may not develop their regular striking red hues.

• In the Shenandoah National Park , typically one of the best fall foliage destinations in our region, Powell estimates that significant drought could make for an "earlier, shorter, and less dramatic foliage season."

Reality check: "That said, it's not an 'across the board' phenomenon and there will still be decent fall color in some areas," says Powell.

Flashback: Drier and hotter-than-average conditions threatened to dampen fall foliage last year — and things turned out better than expected.

• "Last year was lovely [in Virginia] despite the predictions," adds Powell, noting there were some areas that browned fast, and that peak times were a bit earlier than usual — in the last two weeks of October.

Zoom out: Powell notes that "most of the damage is done" in terms of weather impact on foliage, "but some slow, soaking rains may help if they come immediately."

• "In between rains, we need a good number of sunny days with cool clear nights to develop the best reds."

The intrigue: Consistent summer rainfall is part of the key to long-lasting fall foliage, but Powell also notes a long, colorful autumn is based on species diversity — trees that pop midseason and late-changers will lengthen the show.

Mark your calendars: Using historical weather reports, tree species info, and user data, travel brand SmokyMountains.com put together 2024 foliage prediction maps of the U.S.

• In much of D.C., Virginia, and Maryland, leaves are predicted to change color by early October.
• Peak is predicted around Oct. 23, and past peak by Nov. 6.

Yes, but: To make close accurate predictions about timing for individual areas, "You need a climatologist working with a dendrologist [tree scientist]," says Powell. "And even then, nature can surprise you."