What to expect for Colorado's fall weather this year

Bad news for Colorado's autumn enthusiasts: The latest fall forecasts show sweater weather may be a bit subdued this upcoming season.

Zoom in: The temperature outlook , issued Aug. 15 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, shows the state experiencing above-average temperatures from September to November.

• Forecasters give especially high odds of hotter-than-average temperatures in southwestern Colorado and the Four Corners region.
• A precipitation outlook , also released Aug. 15, predicts below-normal rainfall across Colorado.

Threat level: Warm, dry conditions could elevate wildfire risks at a time when the state is still recovering — and resource-strapped — after multiple blazes broke out this summer.

What's happening: The seasonal outlooks show the footprint of La Niña's anticipated arrival this fall and winter, which is driving the dry spell, Jim Kalina, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Boulder, tells us.

• During a La Niña year, winter temperatures tend to be warmer than usual in the southern U.S. and cooler than normal in the North.

Flashback: Colorado's temperature forecast last fall was nearly identical to this year's, but the precipitation levels were higher, Kalina notes.

The big picture: Most of the country is expected to experience an unusually hot and dry fall this year, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

• The highest probability (above 60%) for above-normal temperatures is predicted for parts of the Southwest and in the Northeast.

The bottom line: If this outlook holds, it might be wise to keep those short-sleeve shirts within reach.