How the Democratic ticket could influence Iowa's red politics

Vice President Kamala Harris' selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate is unlikely to change the outcome of the Iowa presidential race, but there could be down-ballot implications for the Democratic ticket's makeup.

Why it matters: Mobilizing the party could allow Iowa Democrats to gain some U.S. House seats, where Republicans currently hold a slim majority, Karen Kedrowski, director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State, tells Axios.

Flashback: Iowa Democrats lost all the state's congressional seats and all but one statewide office in 2022.

• Republicans also expanded their majorities in the Iowa House and Senate that year.

Yes, but: The 2022 anticipated national red wave didn't occur.

• The Midwest continues to be the most purple region overall, Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Axios last month.

Driving the news: Tuesday's announcement better positions Minnesota to go blue in this year's presidential race, Kedrowski said.

• Meanwhile, former President Trump's campaign has aimed to flip Minnesota red for the first time in decades.

What they're saying: Harris being at the top of the ticket is more likely to mobilize Iowa Democrats than Walz, Kedrowski said.

• Three of Iowa's four congressional races this year have the potential to be competitive.
• That includes the 3rd District, which represents Des Moines, Kedrowski said. GOP incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn is being challenged by Democratic candidate Lanon Baccam.

The other side: Some Republicans are relieved by Harris's choice of Walz, believing he is an easier target than other candidates she was considering, Axios' Stef W. Kight and Juliegrace Brufke report.

• They have already painted him as too progressive.

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