Michigan's new absentee vote-counting laws expected to produce faster results

Four years after then-President Trump seized on expected ballot-counting delays in Michigan and other swing states to fuel false claims that the election was stolen, experts warn it could happen again.

The big picture: Michigan and other politically divided states have implemented new laws and regulations to expedite ballot counts for the 2024 election.

Why it matters: Michigan is among the presidential race toss-ups where margins could be closer than in 2020.

• "It is a near guarantee that Donald Trump will declare victory the night of Nov. 5 and the margin won't matter — it won't matter whether he's accurate and he actually won, or whether he was defeated soundly," David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, told Axios.

Context: Trump has called voting by mail "corrupt" but has increasingly encouraged his GOP allies to take advantage of it, if necessary. He has repeatedly dodged questions about whether he'll accept the 2024 election results if he loses.

• He's threatened to seek to imprison anyone who engages in "unscrupulous" election behavior, and he's warned law enforcement to "watch for voter fraud."

Flashback: In 2020, early returns showed Trump ahead, but as more votes were processed, Joe Biden's victory took shape.

• Michigan saw a surge of absentee voting, contributing to longer waits for election results. It took until the day after the election to finish counting absentees in Detroit — a wait that fueled chaos and election misinformation .

Driving the news: Local election officials are optimistic that 2024 will produce quicker results. After the Democrats gained control of state government in 2023, they passed new rules to permit counting absentee ballots up to eight days before the election and to provide more opportunities for in-person early voting .

What they're saying: As a result, the Detroit Department of Elections expects to announce results earlier than in previous years, according to a spokesperson.

• Michael Siegrist, Canton Township's clerk, tells Axios Detroit the change will yield in a "sizable shift in how we report results on election night."
• He expects about 90% of absentee ballots to be counted before Election Day begins, and unofficial results are reported a few hours after the polls close. "I don't envision a world where we don't know who won Michigan by midnight," he added.

Go deeper: " 2020 déjà vu: Why the 2024 election could take days to call "