Latino voters key for Miami Democrats as Harris lags

Early polls suggest Vice President Kamala Harris has opened up a lead over former President Trump among Latino voters. But so far, she hasn't hit the level of support Democrats historically have needed to win the White House.

Why it matters: An Axios review of exit polls going back 50 years finds that when Democratic presidential candidates get less than about 64% of the Latino vote, they typically lose.

• That benchmark is key for Democrats as Latinos — who now make up nearly 20% of the U.S. population — represent a crucial segment of the party's historical coalition that recently has drifted toward Republicans.
• Harris' support among Latinos is polling in the mid-to-upper 50s nationally — a big improvement from what President Biden's numbers had been this year, but a signal to Democrats that they have work to do.

Zoom in: Miami-Dade County has shifted right in recent years, in large part because of its Latino voters.

• In 2022, Gov. Ron DeSantis claimed the first Republican gubernatorial win in the county in two decades, winning roughly 65% of the vote in majority Hispanic precincts, according to the Miami Herald .
• In 2020, Latino voters led a 23-point swing from Hillary Clinton's win in the county in 2016 in favor of Trump, per the outlet .

Yes, but: Miami-Dade Democratic Party First Vice Chair Millie Herrera tells Axios the local party has been reactivated under new leadership and is doubling down on its messaging and traditional grassroots efforts with the Latino community, such as door knocking.

• "The Democratic Party [in Miami] wasn't as active as we would've wanted in past years. Now we're on the ground," Herrera says. "There's still time."
• Local organizations, such as the Cuban American Democrats of Miami-Dade, which "fell off" decades ago, are also seeing renewed movement and community engagement under new leadership, she added.

Case in point: Many organizations now on the ground are looking at how to best communicate with Florida's Latino voters, many of them with roots in the Caribbean and South America, Herrera said.

• "It has to be a message from here [and] different from the [messaging] to the rest of the country," she said.

Zoom out: Nationally, Harris has moved quickly to try to appeal to Latino voters — particularly in the Sun Belt, the hottest battleground for them.

• Last week Harris' campaign released an ad emphasizing her family's immigrant roots.
• One encouraging sign for Harris' campaign: an endorsement Friday by the political arm of the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), a generally nonpartisan group that hadn't endorsed a presidential candidate in its nearly 100-year history.

The big picture: Latino voters historically have leaned progressive on many issues, but new voters who are the grandchildren and great-grandchildren of immigrants have made the Latino electorate more difficult to assess, University of Houston political science professor Jeronimo Cortina tells Axios.

• College-educated Latinas are leaning Democratic, which in Florida could be key in the outcome of November's referendum on abortion rights.
• Many working-class Latino men without a college education are, like white men with similar backgrounds, tilting toward the GOP.

Bottom line: Latino voters make up a politically, geographically and culturally diverse electorate in which generational differences also affect voting patterns.