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  • Axios Nashville

    Tennessee population to approach 8 million by 2040

    By Adam Tamburin,

    2024-08-28
    Data: University of Tennessee ; Chart: Axios Visuals

    Tennessee's population will continue to climb in the coming decades, reaching nearly 8 million residents by 2040, according to a new projection.

    Why it matters: The projection released Tuesday by the University of Tennessee suggests the state's older population will be a driving force in that growth, underscoring the need for more support for elderly residents .


    State of play: About 1 in 5 Tennesseans will be age 65 or older by 2040, per the projection from UT's Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.

    Zoom in: While the working-age population is expected to expand in the coming decades, growth will be fastest among the state's oldest residents.

    • In 2022, there were about 491,000 Tennesseans aged 75 or older.
    • By 2040, the projection estimates that population will balloon to almost 712,000.

    What they're saying: "A growing senior population doesn't just have implications for the health care system," health economics professor Matt Harris said in a statement from UT.

    • "The full array of senior-oriented services — such as housing, transportation and other types of personal care — will also be in higher demand over the coming years."

    Between the lines: Tennessee is also expected to become increasingly racially diverse in the coming years, with strong growth projected among Hispanic, Black and multiracial residents.

    By the numbers: By 2040, the Hispanic population is projected to account for 9.5% of Tennessee residents, the UT data shows, up from 6.4% in 2022.

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