Explainer: The possible Josh Shapiro succession plan in Pennsylvania

Say Governor Josh Shapiro joins the 2024 ticket. And Harris-Shapiro wins the White House.

Why it matters: Shapiro's exit from the state could lead to a Democrat and Republican splitting the governor and lieutenant governor's offices — not unprecedented but definitely a rare realignment for Pennsylvania.

The big picture: Shapiro is reportedly atop Harris' short list, alongside Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper .

• While losing Shapiro to Washington would boost Pennsylvania's national profile, it'd also leave residents without the leader they elected in a landslide over right-wing candidate Doug Mastriano.

State of play: In that scenario, Austin Davis — the state's first Black lieutenant governor and youngest person to hold that office — would assume Shapiro's post until his term ends in 2027.

• Senate President Pro Tempore Kim Ward, a Republican from Westmoreland, would become lieutenant governor for the rest of the term, per the state constitution .

How it works: Shapiro could retain the governorship while campaigning with Harris.

• Yes, but: He'd likely face calls to step down from state Republicans who'd accuse him of being a part-time governor.

If he decided to leave Harrisburg, he risks losing precious political stock as the leader of a swing state Harris desperately needs to win — and risks forfeiting the majority of his gubernatorial term should he and Harris lose.

Zoom in: Davis represented Allegheny County in the state House from 2018-2022. He won a competitive three-way primary for lieutenant governor last year.

• Ward is in her second stint as Senate pro tempore and is the first woman to hold the position in the state. She's a four-term state senator and seeking reelection in November.

Between the lines: Pennsylvania has operated under a power split of this sort a handful of times, with few hiccups. Insiders tell us a potential hang-up is a philosophical dispute over criminal justice because the lieutenant governor chairs the state's Board of Pardons.

• But harmony in a divided government can hinge largely on the prowess of the governor. As a moderate Democrat, Shapiro has gotten credit for navigating those politics relatively well.
• Austin, meanwhile, is relatively untested and doesn't have the same clout as Shapiro.

What they're saying: Ward tells Axios that, should the state's succession plan be triggered, "we will ensure that Pennsylvanians have confidence in the transfer of power and their government continues to operate in the interest of the people."

• Austin told Axios in a statement that he recognizes he "may be called upon to serve as governor." But, right now, he's "laser-focused on getting stuff done and delivering real results for the people of Pennsylvania."

Zoom out: Only a handful of Pennsylvania governors have pursued presidential and vice presidential runs, including Milton Shapp who lost his bid for the Democratic nomination in 1976, per the Centre Daily Times.

• George Mifflin Dallas is the Commonwealth's sole elected vice president.

What we're watching: Political analyst Larry Ceisler says Shapiro is essentially "playing with house money" and would be foolish to turn down Harris if she asks him to join the ticket.

• There is a potential drawback, though: Aligning himself with Harris now could damage Shapiro's future presidential prospects.

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to reflect that Davis served in the state House from 2018-2022 (not just a two-year term).