Why Philadelphia gun violence spikes in the summer

Violent crime is down significantly in Philadelphia this year, but summer has brought a recent spike in shootings compared to the rest of 2024, according to an Axios analysis of police data.

Why it matters: Summer is Philadelphia's deadliest season, and we're headed toward a holiday weekend with a history of increased gun violence.

By the numbers: August has historically had the highest number of shootings in Philadelphia, followed by July and then June, per Axios' analysis of police shooting data from 2015 through Aug. 27, 2024.

• Nearly 1,700 people were killed or injured in reported shootings in August over that period.

The latest: This month, Philadelphia police have reported 86 shootings, as of Tuesday.

• In July, there were 118 shootings in Philly, and 120 in June — compared with the spring months of March (77) and April (89).

Reality check: Police report a 36% decline in homicides so far this year, and a 10% reduction in overall violent crime compared to the same point last year.

The big picture: Violence historically spikes during the summer months, when school's out and more people are gathering amid hotter weather.

• In the words of Philadelphia police union president Roosevelt Poplar: "more people, more problems."
• Plus: Alcohol consumption — which is sometimes heightened at social events — can contribute to more gun violence because people's inhibitions are lowered, Sarah Burd-Sharps, senior research director at Everytown for Gun Safety, tells Axios.

Between the lines: "It doesn't mean that those kinds of things aren't around in March or in January. They're just around at a lower extent than they are in the summertime," University of Miami criminologist Alex Piquero told the Associated Press .

Zoom in: A rash of shootings around Labor Day has made it one of the most violent holiday weekends of the year.

• In 2022, 12 people were shot or killed on Labor Day while another dozen were struck the day after Labor Day in 2020.

The Fourth of July has seen a number of mass shootings in the city.

• This past holiday, a 19-year-old was killed at a pop-up party he was hosting in Kingsessing after a shooter fired into a crowd. Police Commissioner Kevin Bethel decried such pop-up gatherings and promised to crack down on them this summer.
• In 2023, five people were killed in the same neighborhood during a shooting spree around July 4th.

The intrigue: June 4, 2022, and July 5, 2020 were the most violent days in Philadelphia since 2015, per Axios' analysis.

• At least 22 people were shot or killed on both days.

What they're saying: Experts say analyzing historical crime trends can help law enforcement anticipate and prepare for violence.

• Data helps police strategize on how to prevent violence, especially among young people who need more "legal opportunity, structure in their day and meaning in their lives" in the summer when school is out, Burd-Sharps tells Axios.
• "It's knowing where it's happening, at what time it's happening, knowing when a gun has been stolen."

What we're watching: Some of the later summer and fall months had consistently high rates of gun violence in the city.