RFK Jr. appears likely to drop out of race, amid possible Trump endorsement

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appears likely to drop out of the 2024 presidential race, and he could formally announce the decision Friday in Arizona — a state famed for its independent voters .

Why it matters: If Kennedy exits the race, he's widely expected to endorse former President Trump , who is also hosting an event in Phoenix on Friday.

State of play: Kennedy's running mate Nicole Shanahan said Tuesday the campaign is considering joining forces with the Trump ticket .

• On Wednesday, the Kennedy campaign announced he would address the nation Friday from Phoenix "about the present historical moment and his path forward."

Zoom in: Independents make up roughly one-third of Arizona's electorate and outnumber registered Democrats statewide.

• They temporarily overtook Republicans as the largest group of registered voters in the state last year.
• Independents have made up more than a quarter of general election voters over the past decade.

Yes, but: Independents have a wide variety of political views.

• Just because a candidate is independent doesn't mean they'll get support from independent voters.
• No independent has ever won a state-level or federal office in Arizona.
• U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) left the Democratic Party and became an independent in 2022. She decided not to seek reelection after realizing her path to victory was virtually nonexistent.

The intrigue: Secretary of State Adrian Fontes announced Wednesday that Kennedy officially qualified for the Arizona ballot .

• If Kennedy doesn't formally withdraw, his name will still be on the November ballot, Fontes' spokesperson Aaron Thacker tells Axios.
• It's unclear when it will be too late for Arizona's 15 counties to remove his name from ballots.

Between the lines: The most recent polling average from FiveThirtyEight shows Kennedy getting 5.2% of the vote in Arizona.

The latest: Trump told CNN's Kristen Holmes on Tuesday he would "probably" give RFK a role in his administration if the independent candidate drops out and endorses the GOP nominee.

Catch up quick: Kennedy, a lawyer and anti-vaccine activist, launched his campaign as a Democrat in April 2023.

• He emphasized "clean government" as a top priority, contending, "the blizzard of misinformation that is now inundating our democracy will end only when the government and the media start telling the truth to Americans."
• Last October, he dropped his longshot Democratic primary bid and announced he would instead run for president as an independent.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to remove incorrect information given to Axios about how soon Robert Kennedy Jr.'s formal withdrawal has to occur to ensure his name does not appear on the Arizona ballot.