New job numbers paint rosy economic picture for Arizona

Revisions by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that recent job gains weren't as impressive as they seemed nationwide, but Arizona defied the trend and actually gained more jobs than originally thought.

Why it matters: The revision indicates Arizona is in a stronger position than the country at large and is poised to continue its recent economic growth.

The big picture: New data released by the Labor Department on Wednesday showed that the U.S. added 818,000 fewer jobs than originally estimated during the 12-month period that ended in March 2024.

• It was the largest such revision by the department since 2009.
• Based on those revisions, the economy averaged 174,000 new jobs each month during that span, not the 242,000 originally reported.

Yes, but: Arizona added 39,800 more jobs than previously estimated during that period, according to state-level data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

• 22,300 of those jobs were in the Phoenix area.

State of play: Arizona, one of 18 states that added more jobs than estimated, was tied with Tennessee for the largest upward revision.

• Phoenix had more additional jobs than any metro area except Los Angeles.

What they're saying: "Arizona's economic activity has been among the best in the nation and Arizona's positive economic momentum helps position the state for continued near-term growth," Gina Flores, spokesperson for Arizona's Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO), told Axios.

• The state's numbers are "well within the range of revisions" of the past two years, according to a report by the Common Sense Institute (CSI), a pro-business nonprofit research organization.
• "While employment growth in Arizona has been slowing recently relative to prior years, the significant upward revision suggests that growth may have been stronger," per the institute's report.

What we're watching: Additional revisions could change those numbers over the next few months, Flores noted.

• "It's a preliminary change, so the change could change, if you will," Glenn Farley, CSI's director of policy and research, told Axios.

Context: Arizona has experienced historically low unemployment this year.

• The OEO reported two months ago that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for May 2024 was 3.4%.
• That's a record low under the current methodology used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which dates to 1976.

Zoom out: Arizona's unemployment rate remains lower than the national rate of 4.3% reported last month, which is the highest since 2021.