Democrats are pushing to win control of the Legislature for the first time since the 1960s, but their chances of taking the Senate suffered what could be a major blow in the primary last month.
Why it matters: Republicans only have one-vote majorities in both chambers.
Zoom in: In Legislative District 17, which covers the northern and western Tucson areas, former Sen. Vince Leach beat incumbent Sen. Justine Wadsack (R-Tucson), a member of the far-right Freedom Caucus whom Democrats viewed as more vulnerable in the general election.
- Democrats are also competing for one of the district's two House seats.
Between the lines: On paper, the district is solidly Republican, but Wadsack beat her Democratic opponent by only 2.4 percentage points in 2022, and several statewide Democratic candidates, including Gov. Katie Hobbs, won the district that year.
- The notion that Wadsack was vulnerable to Democratic challenger John McLean was part of Leach's campaign platform, he told Axios.
What they're saying: "There goes our control of the Senate," Democratic strategist Maritza Miranda Saenz, of the firm Lumen Strategies, tells Axios about Leach's win.
- Saenz believes the Democrats can still force a 15-15 tie in the Senate.
- She also questions whether Democrats can win the House, saying she'd be happy if they at least kept the Republicans from expanding their 31-29 majority.
State of play: Aside from LD17, six districts will likely determine who controls the Legislature next year.
LD2: Based in north Phoenix, the slightly GOP-leaning district has a Republican senator and a split House delegation.
- Rep. Judy Schwiebert (D-Phoenix) is running against incumbent Sen. Shawnna Bolick (R-Phoenix), who was appointed to fill a vacancy.
LD4: Democrats hold the Senate seat and one House seat in this competitive district that covers parts of Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and Phoenix's Arcadia and Biltmore areas.
LD9: Democrats hold all three seats in this competitive but left-leaning district, which covers parts of Tempe and west Mesa.
LD13: The Chandler-based district may be Arizona's most competitive.
- Sen. JD Mesnard (R-Chandler) has survived well-funded Democratic campaigns against him in the past.
- Democrats are taking the rare step of running candidates for both House seats, but may have a tough time due to the retirement of incumbent Rep. Jennifer Pawlik (D-Chandler), who has a track record of winning in the district.
- And former Republican Rep. Jeff Weninger's campaign for his old seat could bolster the GOP's chances to sweep the district.
LD16: Democrats managed to win a House seat in the Pinal County district in 2022, though statewide Republican candidates dominated the district that year, indicating that LD16 may not be as competitive as Democrats hope.
LD23: Voter registration skews pretty heavily toward Democrats in the southwestern Arizona-based district, but Rep. Michele Peña (R-Yuma) gave the Republicans a surprise win in 2022.
Editor's note: This story has been corrected to note that Republicans are targeting Rep. Eric Meyer (not Rep. Sarah Liguori) in LD4.
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