CD1 matchup between Schweikert and Shah could help determine control of U.S. House

In a northeast Valley congressional district that may be Arizona's most competitive , longtime Republican incumbent David Schweikert may be facing the toughest re-election of his career.

Why it matters: With Republicans holding a eight-seat majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, control of the chamber could come down to a handful of swing districts like the 1st Congressional District.

• The Cook Political Report lists CD1 as one of 27 toss-up races in the country.
• Schweikert and Democrat Amish Shah both believe they can win even if the other party's presidential candidate wins the district, which includes Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Cave Creek and parts of northeast Phoenix.

The big picture: Schweikert is a seven-term incumbent known as a policy wonk with a passion for tax and financial issues.

• Shah is an emergency physician and former state representative with a reputation as a moderate Democrat who was willing to vote against his party and work with Republicans.

Between the lines: For a decade, Schweikert was in a reliably Republican district where he rarely faced a serious Democratic challenge and most of his races were blowout wins, but redistricting put him into the highly competitive CD1 in 2022, and he won his first re-election campaign in the new district by about 3,200 votes.

• Republicans significantly outnumber Democrats in CD1, with about 38.5% of the district's registered voters compared with under 28% for the Democrats.
• But in terms of voter performance, the district is split down the middle, and its voters supported Joe Biden over Donald Trump in 2020.

State of play: Both candidates tell Axios that the biggest issues CD1 voters are focused on are inflation and economic issues, along with border security.

• Shah says many voters are also focused on protecting women's reproductive rights , an issue that Democrats are aggressively using against Schweikert .

What they're saying: Schweikert disputed his opponent's image as an aisle-crossing moderate and expressed a commitment to continuing the Trump tax cuts, noting that Shah doesn't support doing so.

• He doesn't think the abortion issue will hurt him, saying that in all of his meetings with voters "it almost never, ever comes up. It may be just one of those things where people know where they're at."

Shah touted his record of getting bills through the Republican-controlled Legislature and signed into law and said he'll be "firm and resolute about protecting" Medicare and Social Security.

• He said Schweikert's support for anti-abortion legislation in Congress isn't in line with the district's views.
• While Republicans have hit Shah as weak on public safety, he notes that the Arizona Police Association endorsed him.