How Latter-day Saints could swing the 2024 election

Latter-day Saints — famous for their organizing prowess, but not for political diversity — are making waves in the 2024 presidential election.

Why it matters: They are a potentially decisive voting bloc because of the faith's large population in Arizona , where President Biden's 2020 gains with members exceeded his margin of victory.

• If Harris can replicate that support, it could tip the precarious swing state — and the election.

Driving the news: The group Latter-day Saints for Harris is ramping up its efforts, with more than 2,500 people signing up within days for an online rally Tuesday.

• Meanwhile, Harris won a high-profile endorsement last week from John Giles , the Republican, LDS mayor of Mesa, Arizona — once called the " most conservative city in America ."

The intrigue: LDS voters have famously shown tepid enthusiasm for former President Trump — but Biden has also lost ground since 2020, according to polling data through 2023 .

• That creates a potentially ripe crop of " double haters " that the Harris-Walz ticket could target in the reliably-conservative faith.

Zoom in: Latter-day Saints for Harris — previously named for Biden — saw its small volunteer force double within days of Biden's departure from the campaign, the group's director, Robert Taber, told Axios.

By the numbers: Polling by Y2 Analytics in 2020 showed Biden doubled the 9% support Hillary Clinton received from Arizona Latter-day Saints.

• While 18% is hardly a Mormon groundswell, the increase likely amounted to 18,000 new votes — more than the 10,000 that Biden won the state by.

Caveat: Trump's support among LDS voters also grew in 2020, largely because so many members supported fellow member and independent Evan McMullin in 2016, reported Ryan Burge, a sociologist at Eastern Illinois University. McMullin claimed 21.5% of Utah's vote and 0.7% in Arizona.

• Yes, but: Specifically among the Arizona faithful, Trump didn't gain much in 2020, while Biden's gains over Clinton were "very clear," Y2 pollster Quin Monson told the Deseret News.

Friction point: In a faith that stresses lawfulness, the Jan. 6 insurrection and rise of election denialism have soured some voters on the GOP, giving Harris a new advantage, Taber argued.

• During Tuesday's call, BYU sociology professor Jacob Rugh pointed to a 2022 midterm analysis in which he concluded election denialism produced a bigger "penalty" in Utah than in other states, calling it a "breaking point" for some LDS voters.

Catch up quick: The faith has been known for its political conservatism for the past century.

• In the 1930s, church leaders campaigned against FDR , which evolved into an intense suspicion of communism .
• An apostle who was instrumental in the far-right John Birch Society warned it "would be very hard" for a good Mormon to be a Democrat and called civil rights a " tool of communist deception ."
• Another claimed that "feminists, homosexuals and intellectuals" were the three greatest threats to religion. The church still opposed the Equal Rights Amendment as of 2019, and it bans women from top church leadership . It has repeatedly joined lawsuits opposing LGBTQ+ protections.

What they're saying: Tuesday's call was peppered with Mormon references, prayers and quotes from scripture and talks by church leaders.

• One speaker compared the Jan. 6 mob to the one that killed church founder Joseph Smith.
• There were many calls to "put your shoulder to the wheel," a common Mormon phrase that hearkens to the wagons and carts of pioneers traveling to Utah.

Case in point: Dan Barker, a former judge for the Arizona Court of Appeals, said he began campaigning against Trump in 2020, after resisting his wife's suggested "Country over party" yard sign at their Gilbert home in 2016. He was serving as stake president, a local leadership position.

• "'Honey,' I responded, 'there is no way on Earth I can do my calling if we put up that sign,'" Barker recounted.
• By 2020, he had founded a political action committee for Arizona Republicans supporting Biden .
• "Each of our political journeys is going to be different. I'll quote a phrase some of you may recognize from missionary work: 'Act in whatever is a normal and natural way for you,'" he said, paraphrasing an apostle's advice .

The big picture: Mormon culture has historically stressed conformity within its ranks . Members proudly call themselves " a peculiar people ," and scholar Joanna Brooks has identified "'insider' status" and kinship ties as key values in the faith.

• If the 2024 election tips the scales for more Latter-day Saint voters, it could chip away at possible lingering fears that vocally supporting Democrats will make them outsiders in their church communities.
• That could reshape political races throughout the Mountain West.

The fine print: The church professes political neutrality but encourages civic participation. Top leaders warned last year that straight-ticket voting was "a threat to democracy."

"Zoom" out: Tuesday's event was the latest virtual rally supporting Harris.

• The campaign has raised millions in recent weeks through Zoom calls like Win with Black Women; Win with Black Men; White Women: Answer the Call; Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander Men for Harris ; and White Dudes for Kamala Harris.

How it works: The platform is especially useful for Mormon Democrats, Taber said.

• It allows potentially-abashed voters from conservative " Jell-O Belt " congregations to find each other, and puts them in contact with more vocally liberal blue state believers who live closer to progressive organizing centers.
• Tuesday's call included listeners from 49 states, Taber noted.