Bridge closures begin ahead of Hurricane Milton's arrival in Tampa Bay

The effects from Hurricane Milton are beginning in Tampa Bay.

The latest: By about 12:30pm Wednesday, the Sunshine Skyway and Howard Frankland bridges closed to all traffic, the Florida Highway Patrol said.

• The westbound lanes of the Gandy and Courtney Campbell Causeway bridges also closed. Total closures are expected this afternoon.

State of play: Some models show Milton making landfall south of Tampa Bay in Manatee or Sarasota county, which could mean less dramatic storm surge in Hillsborough and Pinellas counties.

• When asked Wednesday morning whether that gives local leaders any reason for optimism, Pinellas emergency management director Cathie Perkins gave a blunt, "No."
• "Do not put your faith in a wobble," Perkins said. "… Everybody in Tampa Bay should consider that we are going to be ground zero, and you need to take action."

Zoom in: Perkins started her emergency management career after Hurricane Andrew, which decimated Miami-Dade in 1992.

• That storm was forecast to make landfall on the Dade-Broward County line, Perkins said.
• It ended up plowing into Homestead about 30 miles south, she said.

Until the storm makes landfall and the impacts become clear, residents should hope for the best and assume the worst: more than 10 feet of powerful storm surge, enough to rip homes from their foundations and kill anyone in its path.

• Hurricane Helene two weeks ago is no comparison, Perkins said: "That was a slap. This is going to be a punch to the face."

Worthy of your time: This Tampa Bay Times report goes in-depth about why slight shifts in the path make such a difference for storm surge.