First-of-its-kind tracker shows 64,000 dementia cases in Minnesota

Around 64,000 Medicare recipients in Minnesota likely have Alzheimer's or another type of dementia, according to researchers developing the first-ever national surveillance system.

Why it matters: The lack of a widely accepted monitoring tool has made it hard to direct spending on the disease, even as science makes it easier to clinically diagnose symptoms and slow cognitive decline.

What they're saying: The new data hub "gives us the most complete picture to date of dementia diagnoses among the Medicare population," the Minnesota-North Dakota chapter of the Alzheimer's Association said in a statement to Axios.

• The model was published by researchers at the University of Chicago, George Washington University and KPMG.

The big picture: Cases of dementia — a general term for loss of cognitive abilities — are expected to triple worldwide by 2050 as the population ages .

By the numbers: In Minnesota, 6.2% of Medicare recipients likely have dementia, according to the data hub — a lower prevalence rate than the national figure of 7.1%.

The intrigue: The state's racial demographics are a "likely explanation" for Minnesota's lower number, according to the Alzheimer's Association.

• Minnesota has a large white population, and studies show that dementia is generally more prevalent among Black and Hispanic people.

Yes, but: The data hub also shows dementia is also less prevalent among Minnesotans who are Black (5.7%) and Hispanic (5.0%) than white (6.4%).

Zoom in: On average, dementia is more common among Medicare recipients living in the Twin Cities (6.5%) than in Greater Minnesota (5.9%).

• But when broken down by county, Big Stone County in western Minnesota has the highest prevalence (7.8%).
• In fact, nine of the 10 counties with the highest rates were outside the metro.

Zoom out: Nationwide, much of the South and East Coast have higher rates of dementia than almost anywhere in Minnesota.

• In Florida's Miami-Dade County, 13% of Medicare recipients have been diagnosed.

Reality check: Dementia is notoriously difficult to diagnose, and this tool "still only involves people with diagnosed dementia," the Alzheimer's Association noted.

• "Additional tools are needed to fully understand total dementia prevalence across the country, while also expanding efforts to ensure a timely diagnosis for all in need."

The other side: The surveillance tool could be helpful in directing public health efforts, but improving care still requires higher Medicare reimbursements for dementia patients, John A. Hartford Foundation president Terry Fulmer told Axios.

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