Walz's mixed record with sought-after Midwestern moderate voters

The hope that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz can win over blue-collar voters in the "Blue Wall" paved the way for his VP selection, but his record doesn't show significantly more success with them than other top Democrats.

Why it matters: The path to the White House runs through Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and other swing states with significant shares of rural or moderate voters.

Driving the news: Walz and Harris are playing up his regional ties and "Coach Walz" everyman persona during their opening tour of battleground states.

• "Hello, Eau Claire. Isn't it good to have a candidate who can pronounce the name," the two-term Minnesota governor told a crowd of 12,000 at an outdoor venue in Wisconsin on Wednesday, before calling out his Badger alumni relatives in the front row.

State of play: While Walz represented a purple congressional district in southern Minnesota for 12 years and won the governorship twice by comfortable margins, he trailed his GOP rival in much of Greater Minnesota in 2022 .

• He narrowly carried his old 1st Congressional District in his first statewide campaign but lost the GOP-trending seat post-redistricting by 7.5% percentage points in 2022.

Zoom in: Walz matched or outperformed Biden's 2020 margins in many rural and red areas — including the 1st — in his last election.

• But his vote share was still down "considerably" from Obama, Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, told Axios.

Yes, but: Walz did do better in 2022 than most in his party among white voters without a college degree, according to AP VoteCas t. He won 44% of those in Minnesota, compared to 32% for Democrats nationwide.

• And he outpolled two of the three other Democrats running statewide in Greater Minnesota congressional districts that year.

The intrigue: Those vote totals came before Walz and the DFL-majority Legislature passed the laundry list of progressive policies that have already become fodder for Republican attacks.

• Trump has hammered him for his support for transgender rights and claimed he was as liberal as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

What to watch: What Walz could do, Coleman said, is act as a "safe harbor candidate for some of the suburban voters who needed the reassurance," as Biden did in battleground states.

• Strong performance in the Twin Cities and surrounding metro areas, including suburban communities that will be crucial again this year, helped him coast to victory in 2022.

Between the lines: Walz's rapid rise means he remains largely unknown to a vast majority of the electorate.

• But many voters in the neighboring battleground of Wisconsin may have a better sense of him, thanks to overlaps with the Twin Cities media market or friends and relatives across state lines, Coleman pointed out.

That was the case for Heather Halfen, a nurse from Eau Claire, one of many attendees who ditched her car and walked two or more miles to the rally after traffic caused by security closures and high turnout clogged farm-lined roads near the venue.

• "I think that it's appealing for many [Wisconsinites] to see someone like them on the ticket," she said, citing Walz's record on abortion and free school meals as reasons for her support.

What they're saying: While Walz "brings a degree of Midwestern street credit to the ticket" — something that could complement Harris' coastal ties — vice presidential picks are rarely in a position to deliver a state, Coleman noted.

• "He's not Amy Klobuchar," Coleman said, referencing the U.S. senator's crossover appeal . "But he's still, you know, hardly a weak link."

The bottom line: Walz's selection prompted Coleman's publication, a top election forecaster, on Wednesday to move Minnesota, a blue state that Republicans had hoped to put in play this year, back into the less competitive "Likely Democratic" column.

• But it left the rest of the Midwestern Blue Wall states in "toss-up" territory.