Where the most closely-watched contest on Minnesota's 2024 primary ballot stands

U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar and DFL challenger Don Samuels go head-to-head in a closely watched rematch Tuesday in Minnesota's primary election.

The big picture: Two other members of the progressive "Squad" — Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush — have lost their Democratic primaries this cycle .

State of play: Omar eked out a 2,466-vote win over Samuels in her last election after outside groups spent big on an eleventh-hour bid to boost him.

• Spending, private polling, and election forecasts paint a less competitive race this time. The Cook Political Report declared the incumbent "in a strong position to fend off another primary challenge."

Yes, but: Both sides are taking the race seriously — especially given the unpredictable nature of low-turnout primaries.

• "We are campaigning the way we normally campaign, and not the way that we campaigned in 2022," Omar said, citing hundreds of volunteers on the doors and more calling and texting voters.

Follow the money: While an American Israel Public Affairs Committee-affiliated committee poured millions into the other "Squad races," there hasn't been a similar surge in outside money here.

• Omar has significantly outraised Samuels and unlike last time is spending her war chest. She's spent more than $2.7 million on TV and digital ads, per Ad Impact, compared to the roughly $185,000 from the Samuels campaign.

Driving the debate: Crime and police funding were big themes in 2022. This time around, Samuels is pitching himself as someone who would focus on domestic issues and work with a broad spectrum of Democrats and Republicans.

• He's criticized Omar over her statements related to the war in Gaza and issues where she split from the majority of House Democrats, such as the bipartisan infrastructure bill.
• Omar, who won the DFL endorsement, has highlighted her legislative accomplishments, including $54 million in federal funds for local projects and organizations, and her work on issues like school meals and student debt.

Between the lines: The race has become deeply personal at times. Samuels faced criticism after referencing the congresswoman's appearance when critiquing her constituent services — he says the comments were misconstrued — and has raised issues over her husband's business dealings .

• He frequently attacks Omar as "divisive" and has suggested she's more interested in "celebrity" than results. Omar fired back in an interview with Axios, calling her rival "ineffective, "arrogant" and one of the most "hateful elected politicians we've ever seen in the Twin Cities."

The other side: Samuels, a former Minneapolis City Council member, told Axios that he's "frustrated" and "puzzled" that outside groups haven't spent on his bid this year.

• But he says he's buoyed by a big spike in volunteer sign-ups — more than 1,200 compared to just 100 in 2022 — and the more than 100,000 voter contact attempts made by his campaign.
• His supporters intend to "do their part to make sure that this is a victory," he said.

The latest: Both sides have recently ramped up get-out-the-vote outreach.

• Omar brought in U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders for an Aug. 2 rally and barnstormed the district , while Samuels had close to a dozen public appearances on his schedule last weekend.
• Over the weekend, the rivals also clashed over endorsements.

The intrigue: Minnesota voters can choose to participate in either party's primary, so it's possible that Republicans in the deep-blue district vote in this race to oust Omar.

• Royce White, the GOP-endorsed candidate for U.S. Senate, last week urged his supporters to do that, saying he'd "gladly give up 5,000 votes in the CD5 primary to accomplish this goal."