Two months ago, Minnesota's election looked more competitive. Here's what changed

Minnesota Democrats say they've broken records for fundraising, volunteer sign-ups and even State Fair merch sales since Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Tim Walz took over the party's presidential ticket.

Why it matters: A sustained surge in enthusiasm among Democrats could dampen prospects for a close race and dash Republicans' hopes that former President Trump can flip the state for the GOP for the first time since 1972.

• "Trump was going to win Minnesota [in July]," Republican strategist Amy Koch told Axios. "And it's all switched."

The big picture: Polls show Harris holding a narrow lead over Trump across the nation in the wake of the historic ticket shake-up — a stark reversal from before Biden dropped out.

Zoom in: In Minnesota, most recent public opinion surveys give the new Democratic ticket a larger lead than the Biden-Trump matchup, though nearly all remain within the margin of error.

• Top election forecasters shifted Minnesota back to "likely Democrat" after Harris stepped in and added the home-state governor to the ticket.

What they're saying: U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar told Axios she's seen a "huge uptick" in volunteer sign-ups and enthusiasm since the switch in her deep blue Minneapolis-based district, where high turnout traditionally fuels the DFL's statewide wins.

• "We were worried about Minnesota at the start of July," Omar acknowledged last month. "[Now] there's just like an incredible energy that has been created and unleashed."
• The Minnesota DFL said its State Fair booth raised $558,000 in merchandise sales this year, tripling its previous record set in 2019.

The other side: Minnesota Republican Party chair David Hann points to a recent KSTP poll that shows the race tightening again post-Democratic National Convention as evidence the state is still in play.

• "Fundamentally, I don't think that the campaign has changed. It has been always a referendum on the policies of the Biden administration, which [Harris] clearly represents," he said, arguing that Harris' more "radical" liberal views and Walz's progressive record in Minnesota create an opportunity for the GOP.
• The GOP is also seeing strong metrics for voter contacts and volunteer sign-ups, he added, calling their State Fair booth sales the "best that we've had in recent years."

Between the lines: A tight race in bigger battlegrounds — including the must-win Blue Wall states — likely means less national attention and resources for the campaigns in Minnesota.

• That could be an added challenge for Republicans, given state Democrats' fundraising and structural advantages.

The bottom line: The overall state of the race remains close — Harris still trails Biden's 2020 numbers for key demographics — and there's still time for momentum to shift yet again.

• "For the Republicans, they should hope the Democrats become very confident," Koch said. "There are still over two months until the election and a lot can change."