SCOTUS’s 2023 term had one of the highest occurrences of 6-3 votes since 2007

Welcome to the Wednesday, August 7, 2024 Brew.

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. SCOTUS’s 2023 term had one of the highest occurrences of 6-3 votes since 2007
2. Fewest open state legislative districts in Connecticut since 2014
3. Learn about Blue Slips and how Senators have used them in recent years

SCOTUS’s 2023 term had one of the highest occurrences of 6-3 votes since 2007

In June, we previewed what to expect from the U.S. Supreme Court’s (SCOTUS) peak opinion season. The Supreme Court began hearing cases for the term on Oct. 2, 2023 and will continue until the first Monday in October 2024. The Court generally releases the majority of its decisions in mid-June before taking a summer recess. This year, SCOTUS released 28 decisions in June and four in July.

Now that SCOTUS is in recess, let’s look at how the Court voted on its 62 cases during its October 2023 term. This count includes Carnahan v. Maloney and Moyle v. United States, both of which were dismissed.

Five (8%) of the Court’s 62 opinions were decided 5-4. This is a decrease from recent terms. Twelve percent of the 2022 term opinions, 15% of the 2021 term’s opinions, and 16% of the 2020 term’s opinions were decided 5-4. Between the 2007 and 2023 terms, an average of 19% of the Court’s opinions were decided 5-4.

Thirty-five percent of the opinions issued in the 2023 term were 6-3–the highest rate since 2017. The rate of 6-3 decisions in the 2022 term was 20%, it was 28% in the 2021 term, 21% in the 2020 term, 11% in the 2019 term, and 15% in the 2018 term. The 2017 term had one of the lowest 6-3 decision rates since 2007 with 4%.

For the 2023 term, 40% of the Court’s opinions were unanimous. Since the 2007 term, approximately 42% of opinions have been unanimous.

Since 2007, SCOTUS has released opinions in 1,250 cases. Of those, it reversed a lower court decision 891 times (71.3%). It affirmed a lower court decision 347 times (27.8%). Most SCOTUS cases originate in a lower court, though some cases may have original jurisdiction, meaning that SCOTUS is the first and only court that rules in the case. The Supreme Court hears and rules on an average of 74.3 cases each year.

Click on the links below to learn more about SCOTUS’ decisions in recent terms.

To learn more about what is happening in the federal courts, be sure to check out Robe & Gavel, Ballotpedia’s monthly newsletter about which cases SCOTUS heard, which judges retired, which were nominated, and what important rulings came out of other federal courts. Call us as your next witness and get the most in-depth coverage of federal courts available to your inbox.

Fewest open state legislative seats in Connecticut since 2014

Four states are holding primaries on Aug. 13: Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin. Continuing our coverage of statewide primaries, today we dive into elections in Connecticut. The state is holding primaries for congressional (U.S. Senate and House) and state legislative offices.

Why it matters at the national level

In the U.S. Senate, Democrats currently have a majority. There are 47 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and four independents. Three independents caucus with the Democratic Party. Another independent, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, counts toward the Democratic majority for committee purposes. Thirty-four of 100 seats are up for election, including one special election. Of the seats up for election in 2024, Democrats hold 19, Republicans hold 11, and independents hold four. Both of Connecticut’s Senators–Christopher Murphy (D) and Richard Blumenthal (D)– are Democrats. Blumenthal’s current term ends in 2029. Murphy is running for re-election on Nov. 5. The Democratic primary was canceled after Murphy was the only Democratic candidate in the race.

In the U.S. House, Republicans currently have a 220-212 majority with three vacancies. All five members of Connecticut’s House delegation are Democrats. All five Democratic primaries were canceled since only the incumbent representative filed to run in each of the five districts.

State legislature

Democrats control both chambers of the Legislature. Democrats have a 98-53 majority in the Connecticut House of Representatives and a 24-12 majority in the Connecticut Senate. All 151 seats in the House and all 36 seats in the Senate are up for election this year. Across those, 11 incumbents did not seek re-election. That is the fewest number of open state legislative districts in Connecticut since 2014.

The average rate of open seats across state legislatures this year is 16.2%. This means that Connecticut has a significantly lower rate of open state legislative seats this year compared to the national average.

There are 16 total contested primaries–15 Democratic and one Republican. There was an average of 15.2 contested primaries between 2014 and 2022. The year with the fewest primaries was 2022, which had 9 (seven Democratic and two Republican). 2018 had the most contested primaries with 23 (16 Democratic and 7 Republican).

Learn about blue slips and how Senators have used them in recent years

You may know what a pink slip is…but what about a blue slip? In politics that has a particular meaning.

A blue slip is the name for a piece of paper Senators give to the Senate Judiciary Committee to indicate whether they approve of a federal judicial nominee appointed to a seat on the bench in their state.

The Constitution does not mandate the use of blue slips. They are considered a senatorial courtesy, or uncodified practice. Traditionally, blue slips allow Senators to prevent a federal judicial nominee from receiving a hearing and subsequently being confirmed. Senators are not required to give a reason for withholding a blue slip.

First, a quick reminder on how judicial nominations work. There are five key steps in the vacancy process: a presidential nomination, a U.S. Senate committee hearing, a U.S. Senate committee vote to report the nominee to the full Senate, a U.S. Senate confirmation vote, and a confirmed nominee taking their judicial oath and receiving their judicial commission.

A senator returning the blue slip to the Senate Judiciary Committee chair indicates that the senator has no issue with the nominee, in which case the committee chair will often take steps to initiate committee proceedings on the nomination. A senator withholding his or her blue slip, however, indicates that the nominee does not have the senator’s approval, in which case proceedings may be delayed indefinitely.

Depending on the Senate Judiciary Committee chair’s use of this policy, senators may have an opportunity to block nominations made by the president.

The chart below shows the number of district and circuit court nominees in each session of Congress since 2017, the party in control of the presidency, U.S. Senate, and Judiciary Committee, and how many judicial nominees were opposed by at least one home-state senator.

Recent highlights

The Senate’s blue slip policy has not changed in recent years. Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), the current chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, became chair in February 2021 during the 117th Congress. According to Bloomberg Law, Durbin stated he would continue to use the blue slip process his predecessor, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), used in the committee when he was the committee chairman. Durbin has also said he would make certain exceptions: “I want to respect the blue slips, and I’ve said the only exceptions will be if there’s a case which clearly demonstrates a disregard for a nominee’s qualifications because of race, gender, or sexual orientation. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who chaired the committee from 2019-2021, said he would continue the blue slip tradition for district court nominees but not for circuit court nominees as had his predecessor, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa). Graham also said he would work with the White House to ensure that home-state senators could give their opinions on nominees.

Below are a few examples of recent cases Senators have withheld their blue slips:

• Sens. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) announced in June 2024 they would withhold their blue slip for the nomination of Detra Shaw-Wilder to the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida.
• Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) announced in May 2024 that he would withhold his blue slip for the nomination of Danna Jackson to the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana.
• Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) announced in April 2023 that she would withhold her blue slip for the nomination of Scott Colom to the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Mississippi.
• Sens. Tom Udall (D) and Martin Heinrich (D) said in a joint statement in September that they were withholding their blue slips for the nomination of Fred Federici and Brenda Saiz to the U.S District Court for the District of New Mexico.