The primary election took place against the backdrop of a federal investigation of Bush’s alleged misuse of campaign funds to pay her now-husband, Cortney Merritts, for security services and the Israel-Hamas War. American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s (AIPAC) super PAC, United Democracy Project, spent $8.5 million either against Bush or in support of Bell.
Although Bush is the most recent incumbent to lose a primary this year, she’s not the first. Let’s take a look at the three other incumbents who lost primary elections this year.
In the June 25 Democratic primary for New York’s 16th Congressional DistrictGeorge Latimer (D) defeated Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D) 54.5% to 45.5%. In a post-primary analysis of the results, Punchbowl News identified criticisms over Bowman’s conduct in office and Latimer’s long history in local elected politics as key factors alongside satellite spending. According to Punchbowl News, the United Democracy Project spent $14 million in this primary election.
Since 2014, Ballotpedia has tracked 41 incumbents who lost re-election in a primary election. That’s an average of 8.2 incumbents per year.
If this year’s number of incumbents who lost re-election in a primary election holds, 2024 would tie with 2014 and 2018 for the fewest incumbents who lost re-election in a primary election in the last 10 years.
The 16 candidates in 2022 who lost re-election in a primary election were the most incumbents who lost re-election in a primary election in the last 10 years. According to Axios, some factors that contributed to the high loss rate that year included incumbents who ran against other incumbents due to apportionment, former President Donald Trump’s endorsement against incumbents who voted to impeach him, and ethics controversies.
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