Breaking down what Wisconsin and Minnesota voters can expect to see on their Aug. 13 ballots

Welcome to the Monday, August 12, Brew.

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Breaking down what Wisconsin and Minnesota voters can expect to see on their Aug. 13 ballots
2. Five U.S. House primaries are contested in Minnesota this year—the fewest in the last 10 years
3. D.C. voters will decide on ranked-choice voting initiative in November

Breaking down what Wisconsin and Minnesota voters can expect to see on their Aug. 13 ballots

Continuing our coverage of statewide primaries, today we dive into elections in Wisconsin. The state is holding congressional and state legislative primaries on Aug. 13. Voters will also decide on two ballot measures.

Why it matters at the national level

In the U.S. Senate, Democrats currently have a majority. There are 47 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and four independents. Two independents caucus with the Democratic Party, and two others count towards the Democratic majority for committee purposes. Thirty-four of 100 seats are up for election, including one special election. Of the seats up for election in 2024, Democrats hold 19, Republicans hold 11, and independents hold four.

In the U.S. House, Republicans currently have a 220-212 majority with three vacancies. Wisconsin’s U.S. House delegation includes two Democrats and five Republicans with one vacancy. We’re following two Wisconsin U.S. House primaries as battleground primaries:

Primary elections

U.S. Senate

Charles Barman (R), Eric Hovde (R), and Rejani Raveendran (R) are running in the Republican primary. The Democratic primary is uncontested, and the nominee is incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), who was first elected in 2012.

U.S. House

Twenty-three candidates—11 Democrats and 12 Republicans—are running for Wisconsin’s eight U.S. House districts. Between 2014 and 2022, an average of 24 candidates ran each year.

• The 8th Congressional District is the only open district this year. Former incumbent Rep. Mike Gallagher (R) resigned on April 19.
• The 3rd and 8th Congressional Districts tied for the most candidates running in a district this year. Four candidates are running in each district.
• Five primaries—two Democratic and three Republican—are contested this year, the fewest in the last 10 years.

• No incumbents are in contested primaries this year, the fewest in the last 10 years.

State Legislature

In the Wisconsin Legislature, 115 seats—16 in the Senate and 99 in the Assembly—are up for election this year. Wisconsin is one of 10 states with a divided government. The state was a Republican trifecta from 2011 until 2019, when Gov. Tony Evers (D) assumed office. Republicans currently have a 22-10 majority with one vacancy in the Senate and a 64-35 majority in the Assembly.

This year’s elections could decide if Republicans will have a supermajority. A supermajority happens when one party’s majority is large enough to override a gubernatorial veto without any votes from the minority party. Wisconsin is one of 36 states that require a two-thirds majority in both chambers of the Legislature for a supermajority. That means Republicans need a 22-member majority in the Senate and a 66-member majority in the Assembly for a supermajority. With a supermajority on the line, Wisconsin Watch’s Hallie Claflin, Jack Kelly, and Ava Menkes named the four Assembly primaries to watch:

• In the District 6 Republican primary, Rep. Peter Schmidt (R-6) is running against Rep. Elijah Behnke (R-89). This incumbent vs. incumbent primaries is because of redistricting. Wisconsin Watch said, “Schmidt’s hold on the solidly red seat could be on shaky ground” after the Republican Party of Shawano County withdrew its support for Schmidt and censured him in 2022 due to a 2019 criminal conviction.
• In the District 19 Democratic primary, Rep. Ryan Clancy (D-19) is running against Jarrod Anderson (D). According to Wisconsin Watch, this primary will show if “a left-wing incumbent who bucks his own party [can] survive against a challenger who seemingly wants to fall in line with party leaders.”
• In the District 24 Republican primary, Rep. Janel Brandtjen (R-24) is running against Daniel Knodl (R). Former President Donald Trump endorsed Brandtjen. According to Wisconsin Watch, this primary will show the “type of Republican candidate…voters in this Milwaukee suburban area support: a Trump-aligned firebrand or a conservative more closely aligned with party leaders.”
• In the District 78 Democratic primary, Rep. Shelia Stubbs (D-78) is running against Maia Pearson (D). In recent years, Stubbs’ colleagues removed her as chair of the Wisconsin Legislative Black Caucus, and the Dane County Board blocked her appointment as the county’s human services director. According to Wisconsin Watch, this primary will show if Stubbs’ “political rough patch [will] cost her in the heart of the state’s resurgent Democratic Party.”

Redistricting continues to play a big role in this year’s primaries. University of Wisconsin Professor Anthony Chergosky told Wisconsin Public Radio that “it was inevitable that there would be a lot of retirements and there would be a lot of people running for different offices, some people even moving from district to district, physically moving.” Here are a few highlights about this year’s legislative races:

• Two hundred sixty-nine candidates—145 Democrats and 124 Republicans—are running for the Legislature.
• Thirty seats are open, meaning no incumbents are running, tying with 2022 for the most open seats since 2010.
• Fifty primaries—23 Democratic and 27 Republican—are contested this year.
• Twenty-seven incumbents—four Democrats and 23 Republicans—are in contested primaries, the most in the last 10 years. According to the Wisconsin State Journal’s Mitchell Schmidt, the new legislative maps drew incumbents into the same district in six Senate and 15 Assembly districts. In the Assembly primaries, six incumbents—all Republicans—are running against another incumbent.

Ballot Measures

Wisconsin voters will also decide on two ballot measures. According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Hop Karnopp, “The questions stem from debates between Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and the Republican-led state Legislature over distributing federal pandemic relief funds.”

• Question 1 would prohibit the Legislature from delegating its power to appropriate money.
• Question 2 would require legislative approval via a joint resolution or legislative rule in order for the governor to allocate federal funds on behalf of the state. Current state law authorizes the governor to accept and allocate federal funds.

Five U.S. House primaries are contested in Minnesota this year—the fewest in the last 10 years

Now let’s see what is on the August 13 ballot in another midwestern state—Minnesota.

U.S. Senate

Eight candidates are running in the Republican primary. Five candidates—including incumbent Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D)—are running in the Democratic primary. Klobuchar was first elected in 2006 by a margin of 20.2 percentage points. Klobuchar won re-election in 2012 by a margin of 27.3 percentage points and again in 2018 by 24.1.

U.S. House

Twenty-nine candidates—14 Democrats and 15 Republicans—are running for Minnesota’s eight U.S. House districts.

• The 29 candidates who ran this year are the fewest since 2014 when 19 candidates ran.

• We’re following two Minnesota U.S. House primaries as battleground primaries:
• The 3rd Congressional District is the only open district this year. Incumbent Rep. Dean Phillips (D) did not run for re-election in order to seek the Democratic presidential nomination.
• Five candidates—four Democrats and one Republican—are running for the 5th Congressional District, the most candidates running for a district this year.
• Ten primaries—four Democratic and six Republican—are contested this year.
• Six incumbents—two Democrats and four Republicans—are running in contested primaries this year, tying with 2020 for the most in the last 10 years.

State Legislature

All 134 seats in the House are up for election this year. Although no seats in the Senate are up for a regularly scheduled election this year, there will be a special election, which will determine partisan control of the chamber. Minnesota is one of 17 Democratic trifectas. The state had a divided government from 2015 until 2023 when Democrats gained control of the Senate. Democrats currently have a 33-33 majority with one vacancy in the Senate and a 68-64 majority with two vacancies in the House. With such a closely divided Senate and trifecta status on the line, let’s take a look at the primaries for the 45th Senate District special election:

• Kyle Meinen (D), Emily Reitan (D), and Ann Johnson Stewart (D) are running in the Democratic primary. The Republican primary is uncontested, and the nominee is Kathleen Fowke (R). The former incumbent, Kelly Morrison (D), resigned on June 6. According to Axios’ Torey Van Oot, the district has “trended blue in recent elections.” In the 2022 general election, Morrison defeated Fowke 56.3% and 43.7%. Van Oot also said, “Anything can happen in a low-turnout special election. The high political stakes would likely attract serious spending from state and national groups.”

Here are some highlights about this year’s House races:

• Two hundred eighty-four candidates—141 Democrats and 143 Republicans—filed to run. This is the first time since 2014 that more Republicans are running for the House than Democrats.

• Twenty seats are open, meaning no incumbents are running.
• Twenty-two primaries—7 Democratic and 15 Republican—are contested this year.
• Seven incumbents are running in contested primaries.

D.C. voters will decide on ranked-choice voting initiative in November

So far this year, six statewide ballot measures either allowing or banning ranked-choice voting (RCV) are on the ballot. Another four ballot measures are pending signature verification in three states. However, states are not the only ones taking action on RCV.

The D.C. Board of Elections voted unanimously on Aug. 2 to send Initiative 83 to the Nov. 5 ballot. It would create a semi-open primary system allowing voters who are unaffiliated with a political party to vote in a party primary election. The initiative would also require RCV to be used in Washington, D.C. elections beginning in 2026.

Washington, D.C. currently has a closed primary system and uses a plurality voting system for general elections.

In Washington, D.C., the Board of Elections oversees the ballot initiative process. After the Board approves a petition for a ballot initiative, proponents have 180 days to gather a number of signatures equal to at least 5% of registered voters (22,538 signatures). Signatures from 5% of registered voters in five of eight city wards are required to meet the city’s distribution requirement. Once signatures are filed with the Board of Elections, staff have 30 days to count and review the signatures.

Yes on 83 is leading the campaign in support of the initiative. They filed the initiative text on June 16, 2023, and submitted more than 40,000 signatures on July 1, 2024. Campaign representative Lisa D. T. Rice said, “We would be rewarded with politicians who must work hard for our support. I strongly believe the combination of open primaries and ranked choice voting gives candidates and elected officials more independence and freedom to be true to their values and accountable to their constituents.”

The Democratic Party of Washington, D.C. opposes the initiative. The party said, “We acknowledge that RCV may be a suitable option for certain jurisdictions, however, when considering the District’s specific circumstances, we have identified significant concerns that prevent us from endorsing this approach. [The] fundamental issue we identified is that District wards are not equal in terms of voter turnout. Implementing RCV would not adequately address this disparity and could undermine the democratic principles we strive to uphold.”

Three states currently use RCV—Alaska, Maine, and Hawaii. Fourteen states contain localities that either use or are scheduled to begin using RCV in municipal elections. Ten states banned the use of RCV statewide.