Previewing primaries in two of the smaller states – Vermont and Wyoming

Welcome to the Tuesday, August 13, 2024, Brew.

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Previewing primaries in two of the smaller states – Vermont and Wyoming
2. Most contested state legislative primaries in Wyoming this year since 2010
3. Eleven candidates running in the Republican primary for Miami-Dade County sheriff

Previewing primaries in two of the smaller states – Vermont and Wyoming

Continuing our coverage of statewide primaries, today we dive into elections in Vermont. The state is holding primaries for congressional (U.S. Senate and House), state executive, and state legislative offices (House and Senate) on Aug. 13. A Democrat currently represents Vermont’s one at-large U.S. House district. Democrats have supermajorities in both the state Senate (21-7) and the state House (107-37).

U.S. House

• Two candidates–a Republican and a Democrat–are running for Vermont’s one at-large U.S. House seat. That’s the fewest number of candidates to run since 2016, when incumbent Peter Welch (D) ran unopposed. Welch faced no opponent in the Democratic primary and won the Republican primary as a write-in.

• Vermont’s At-Large Congressional District incumbent Rep. Becca Balint (D) is running for re-election. The only election year that the district was open in the last 10 years was 2022.
• Neither the Democratic nor Republican primaries are contested in 2024. The last time both primaries were uncontested was 2016.

U.S. Senate

• Voters in Vermont will elect one member to the U.S. Senate in the general election.
• Incumbent Bernie Sanders (I), who first took office in 2007,is running for re-election and is uncontested in the Democratic primary.
• Peter Welch (D), who was first elected in 2022, holds Vermont’s other Senate seat.

State executive

• Incumbent Phil Scott (R) is running uncontested in the Republican primary. Esther Charlestin (D) and Peter Duval (D) are running in the Democratic primary
• This is one of two governorships Republicans are defending in states President Joe Biden (D) won in 2020. The other is New Hampshire.
• Voters will also decide primaries for lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, auditor, and treasurer.

State legislative

• Vermont has 25 contested state legislative primaries on Aug. 13. In elections from 2010 to 2022, there was an average of 18.1 contested legislative primaries.

• There are 17 contested Democratic primaries and eight contested Republican primaries.
• That is the largest number of contested Republican primaries since Ballotpedia started tracking in 2010. There was an average of five contested Republican primaries between 2010 and 2020.There was an average of 13.1 contested Democratic primaries during that same time.
• All 180 seats are up for election in 2024, and 269 candidates—including 164 Democrats and 105 Republicans—are running in the primaries. There were an average of 273.7 primary candidates between 2010 to 2022.
• There are 137 major party incumbents running for re-election in the primaries. Twenty incumbents, or 14.6%, face primary challengers.
• Thirty-nine incumbents did not run for re-election in 2024. From 2010 to 2022, an average of 29 incumbents retired.
• Vermont has had a divided state government since 2017 with Democrats controlling both legislative chambers with supermajorities and Republicans controlling the office of governor.
• Since 1992, the state has had 10 years of Democratic trifectas and no Republican trifectas.

Connecticut, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are also holding primaries today. To see more upcoming election dates, see our elections calendar.

Most contested state legislative primaries in Wyoming this year since 2010

Wyoming has 54 contested state legislative primaries on Aug. 20, 2024, the most the state has had since at least 2010. All contested primaries are Republican primaries, marking a record high for Republicans and a record low for Democrats.

About 35.1% of all possible state legislative primaries are contested, the highest percentage since Ballotpedia started tracking them in 2010. The average percentage of contested state legislative primaries from 2010 to 2022 was 24.6%.

There are 157 candidates running for 77 seats. Sixteen Democrats and 141 Republicans are running. That is the highest number of Republicans and the lowest number of Democrats since Ballotpedia started tracking.

Sixty-one incumbents are running for re-election in the primaries. An average of 60.1 incumbents ran between 2010 and 2022. Of them, a record high of 41, or 67.2%, are facing primary challengers. Between 2010 and 2022, an average of 22.6 incumbents had contested primaries.

Sixteen incumbents, including five in the Senate and 11 in the House, did not run for re-election. All retiring incumbents were Republicans. The average number of retirements from 2010 to 2022 was 11.7.

Wyoming has had a Republican trifecta since 2011. Since 1992, the state has had 22 years of Republican trifectas and no Democratic trifectas.

The 2024 elections are taking place in the context of a conflict among House Republicans. While 57 of 62 House members are Republican, 26 vote with the Freedom Caucus, and 12 officially identify with the Freedom Caucus. This is a significant increase from 2017 when just five members identified with the Freedom Caucus.

Over the past two years, the Wyoming Freedom Caucus has supported legislation to lower taxes, increase Second Amendment rights, ban abortions, ensure the state has closed primaries, and prohibit certain medical procedures for minors. Because two-thirds of the chamber must approve measures for them to be included in the budget, the Freedom caucus has sufficient numbers to block measures from being proposed in the budget. Other states with similar factional conflicts among Republican legislators include Texas, Ohio, and Tennessee.

Ballotpedia has published comprehensive competitiveness data from each election cycle since 2010. In 2024, this includes data from state legislative, state executive, and congressional filings. Click here to learn more about how competitive the year’s primary elections are.

Eleven candidates running in the Republican primary for Miami-Dade County sheriff

Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections — the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here.

Today, we’re looking at the Aug. 20, Republican primary for sheriff of Miami-Dade County, Florida. Eleven candidates are running in this race: Ignacio Alvarez, Rosie Cordero-Stutz, Ruamen DeLaRua, Alex Fornet, Jeff Giordano, Mario Knapp, Joe Martinez, John Rivera, Ernesto Rodriguez, Joe Sanchez, and Jose Aragu.

The position of sheriff has not been an elected office in the county since it was abolished in the 1960s. In 2018, voters approved Florida Amendment 10, which prohibited counties from abolishing certain local offices and required elections for these offices.The Florida Constitution Revision Commission put the amendment on the ballot. It was approved 63.15-36.85%. This is the first election for sheriff in Miami-Dade County since that measure passed.

The elected sheriff will have county-wide jurisdiction over law enforcement and investigative services. The county previously had an appointed police director and a mayor who served as the sheriff and was the only county in the state with this arrangement.

Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Cordero-Stutz in April. She has also received endorsements from U.S. Sen. Rick Scott (R) and U.S. Reps. Carlos Giménez (R) and Mario Díaz-Balart (R). U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R) endorsed Knapp. According to The Floridian, Cordero-Stutz, Knapp, and Sanchez lead in fundraising.

Sanchez has criticized Cordero-Stutz for allegedly donating to Charlie Crist’s (D) 2014 gubernatorial campaign. Sanchez said, “It seems this campaign has irked some candidates, like Rosie Cordero-Schutz—who give money to Democrats running for Governor and don’t even vote for Governor DeSantis or President Trump.”

Cordero-Stutz’ campaign said, “This desperate attack shows just how out of touch Trooper Joe Sanchez is. President Trump endorsed Rosie because she is a lifelong Republican and for her record of keeping Miami-Dade safe.”

The county is also holding elections for mayor, clerk of the circuit court and comptroller, property appraiser, public defender, state attorney, supervisor of elections, tax collector, county commission, Midtown Miami Community Development District, circuit court judges, and county court judges.