Ranked-choice voting roundup: ballot measure records and legislation reviews

Welcome to the Thursday, Aug. 29, Brew.

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Ranked-choice voting roundup: ballot measure records and legislation reviews
2. Incumbent Tom Suozzi (D) and Michael LiPetri Jr. (R) campaign on local issues in race for New York’s 3rd Congressional District
3. SCOTUS academic joins On the Ballot to discuss the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2023-2024 term – and what to expect in 2024-2025

Ranked-choice voting roundup: ballot measure records and legislation reviews

Five states—Alaska, Idaho, Missouri, Nevada, and Oregon—have certified ballot measures for Nov. 5 related to adopting, repealing, or pre-empting ranked-choice voting (RCV). This is the highest number of RCV-related statewide ballot measures on the ballot in any year.

There is one potential citizen initiative pending signature verification in Colorado that could bring the total number this year to six. There are also two measures, one in Arizona and one in Montana, that could lead to the adoption of RCV in these states, depending on how the legislatures choose to implement the proposals if approved.

If the Colorado measure makes the ballot, measures in Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, and Oregon would adopt RCV. Measures in Alaska and Missouri would repeal or preempt RCV.

On the ballot

Alaska Ballot Measure 2: This citizen initiative would repeal top-four primaries and RCV general elections and return the state to partisan primaries and plurality voting at general elections. In 2020, Alaskans approved an initiative to adopt the top-four RCV electoral system 50.55%-49.45%.

Idaho Proposition 1: This citizen initiative would establish top-four primaries and RCV for general elections, which would apply to congressional, gubernatorial, state, and county elected offices. Currently, all political party candidates for congressional, state, district, and county elected offices must be nominated in primary elections (judicial candidates are exempted from this requirement).

Missouri Amendment 7: This legislatively-referred amendment would:

• establish that each voter has one vote per issue or open seat;
• prohibit the ranking of candidates;
• prohibit top-two primaries, top-four primaries, and other similar electoral systems;
• require primary elections in which only one candidate from each political party, the one who receives the most votes, advances to the general election;
• This would not apply to any nonpartisan municipal election that is in effect as of Nov. 5, 2024, such as in St. Louis, where approval voting is used; and

• provide that only U.S. citizens 18 years of age or older can vote, effectively prohibiting the state or local governments from allowing noncitizen voting.

Nevada Question 3: This citizen initiative would establish top-five primaries and RCV for general elections for congressional, gubernatorial, state executive official, and state legislative offices. In Nevada, voters need to approve citizen initiatives at two successive general elections. Voters approved Question 3 52.94%-47.06% for the first time in 2022.

Oregon Measure 117: This legislatively-referred state law would implement RCV for elections to federal and state offices, including the president, U.S. senator, U.S. representative, governor, secretary of state, attorney general, state treasurer, and commissioner of labor and industries. The measure would also require the secretary of state to establish a program to educate voters about RCV.

There are two measures that do not require RCV but could result in its adoption, depending on how the legislatures choose to implement the proposals if approved.

Arizona Proposition 140: This citizen initiative would replace partisan primaries with primaries in which candidates, regardless of partisan affiliation, appear on a single ballot and a certain number advance to the general election, such as top-two or top-four primaries. The Arizona Legislature would need to pass legislation setting the number of candidates that advance from primaries to general elections. Proposition 140 would also require candidates to receive a majority of votes in general elections and require the use of RCV in general elections when three or more candidates advance from the primaries (for one-winner general elections).

A pending legal challenge argues that more signatures should be rejected as invalid. If the court agrees, the measure could be invalidated before the election.

Montana CI-127: This citizen initiative would require that candidates for governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, auditor, attorney general, superintendent of public instruction, state legislature, and congressional offices must win a majority of the vote (rather than a plurality) to win the election. The legislature would need to pass a law creating an electoral system with majority vote winners, such as runoff elections or RCV.

Potential measure

Colorado Top-Four Ranked-Choice Voting Initiative: This citizen initiative would establish top-four primary elections and RCV for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, governor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, Colorado University board of regents, state board of education, and state legislature. Initiative sponsors submitted nearly 213,000 signatures on Aug. 1. To qualify, election officials must declare 124,238 signatures valid. The state’s deadline for verifying signatures is Aug. 30.

The big picture and RCV-related legislation

From 1965 through 2023, there were six RCV statewide ballot measures in four states (Alaska, Maine, Massachusetts, and Nevada). All six proposed adopting RCV. Voters approved four (66.7%) and rejected two (33.3%). The measure receiving the highest rate of approval was Maine Question 1 (2018) with 53.88%, and the measure receiving the highest “no” vote was Alaska Ballot Measure 1 (2002) with 63.73%.

RCV is currently used statewide in Alaska and Maine and in Hawaii for certain elections. Fourteen states contain localities that either use or are scheduled to begin using RCV in municipal elections, and 10 states have enacted legislation prohibiting the use of RCV in any elections.

State legislatures have considered 126 bills related to RCV this year. Forty-four of these bills would either prohibit RCV or repeal existing RCV statutes. Sixty-three would require or allow RCV systems. Six would amend existing laws related to RCV, and seven bills would commission studies on RCV.

Of the 126 bills introduced this year, seven have been enacted: five prohibiting RCV and two allowing its use. Republicans in states with Republican trifectas sponsored five of these enacted bills, and the other two received bipartisan support in states with Democratic trifectas. These bills are below:

• AL SB186 (prohibit RCV)
• CO SB210 (allow RCV)
• LA SB101 (prohibit RCV)
• ME LD1578 (allow RCV)
• MO SJR78 (prohibit RCV) This bill placed Missouri Amendment 7, as mentioned above, on the ballot. As a constitutional amendment, voter approval is required.
• MS SB2144 (prohibit RCV)
• OK HB3156 (prohibit RCV)

To further explore the RCV legislation we’ve tracked this year, click here.

Incumbent Tom Suozzi (D) and Michael LiPetri Jr. (R) campaign on local issues in race for New York’s 3rd Congressional District

Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections—the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here.

Today, we’re looking at the general election for New York’s 3rd Congressional District on Nov. 5. Incumbent Tom Suozzi (D), Michael LiPetri Jr. (R), Matthew Nappo (independent), and Jacob Soto (independent) are running. Suozzi was elected to the district in the February 2024 special election.

According to AP’s Anthony Izaguirre, Long Island voters, including those in the 3rd District, “have an outsized role in choosing which party controls Congress. Democrats are just a few seats shy of winning a majority in the U.S. House and the island, just a train ride from liberal Manhattan, has emerged as an improbable stage for some of the most contested races this year.”

Following elections in 2022, Republicans represented all four of Long Island’s congressional districts. Izaguirre wrote that Republicans “seized momentum by harnessing suburban backlash over progressive policies in New York City, casting themselves as a dam that can stop the left from swamping Long Island with liberal excess.” In 2024, Suozzi campaigned as a centrist focusing on immigration and border security in the February special election for the 3rd District. Former Incumbent George Santos (R) was expelled from Congress on Dec. 1, 2023. Suozzi won the election, defeating Mazi Pilip (R) 53.9%-45.9%.

Suozzi is campaigning as a centrist in the regular election as well. Izaguirre said this approach fits with New York Democrats “gearing their political strategy toward moderates.” Changes to strategy aren’t unique to Democrats, however. University at Albany Professor Sally Friedman said, “In New York, Republicans and Democrats are campaigning on the hyperlocal issues and focusing on those topics that matter most in their districts. … Suburban and rural areas of the state are typically filled with more centrist and independent voters, so zeroing in on local issues can be a winning strategy.” Suozzi, for example, has emphasized issues such as immigration on X. According to the LI Herald, “LiPetri’s platform focuses on … decreasing crime, ensuring affordability, and protecting the quality of life for residents.”

Suozzi represented an earlier version of the district from 2017 to 2023 and was a candidate for governor in the 2022 Democratic primary. He said through bipartisanship “we can offer solutions to secure the border, protect our neighborhoods, and provide real tax relief.”

LiPetri served in the New York State Assembly, representing District 9, from 2019 to 2021. According to the LI Herald, LiPetri “cited his support for law enforcement, advocacy for immigration reform, and efforts to promote affordability on Long Island as some of the main issues he hoped to address during the campaign and if elected.”

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated the district Likely Democratic as of Aug. 13.

Based on second quarter reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Suozzi raised $7.8 million and spent $6.1 million and LiPetri raised $335,502 and spent $139,422. To review all the campaign finance figures in full detail, click here.

All 435 seats are up for election. Republicans have a 220 to 211 majority with four vacancies. As of August 2024, 45 members of the U.S. House had announced they were not running for re-election. To read more about the U.S. House elections taking place this year, click here.

SCOTUS academic joins On the Ballot to discuss the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2023-2024 term – and what to expect in 2024-2025

On today’s episode of On the Ballot, Ballotpedia’s weekly podcast, Ballotpedia Editor-in-Chief Geoff Pallay interviews author of the Empirical SCOTUS blog Adam Feldman about case trends during the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent and upcoming terms.

They explore the court’s history, why there are fewer cases now than in the first 200 years of the court’s existence, and what to look for in the upcoming term, which begins Oct. 7.

Subscribe to On the Ballot on YouTube or your preferred podcast app to learn more about Supreme Court case trends! This episode is available now.