Looking back on presidential Pivot Counties in 2016/2020

Welcome to the Thursday, Sept. 19, Brew.

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Looking back on presidential Pivot Counties in 2016/2020
2. Help Desk: states that allow same-day voter registration
3. Learn all about Ballotpedia’s Voter Toolkit on this episode of On the Ballot

Looking back on presidential Pivot Counties in 2016/2020

With an eye on November’s presidential election, we wanted to remind our readers of the extensive data we have on Pivot Counties. A Pivot County is one of the 206 counties nationwide that voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016.

One hundred and eighty-one of these counties voted for Trump again in 2020. We call these Retained Pivot Counties. We call the other 25 counties Boomerang Pivot Counties because Joe Biden (D) won those in 2020.

Voters in these Pivot Counties cast 8.4 million votes in 2020—5.4% of all votes cast that year.

Let’s take a deeper look into the data below.

Demographics

• Results indicate an urban-rural divide between Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties. Retained Pivot Counties tend to be less populous than Boomerang Pivot Counties. On average, Retained Pivot Counties have a population of 62,980 compared to 186,852 for Boomerang Pivot Counties.
• Boomerang Pivot Counties have higher rates of educational attainment than Retained Pivot Counties. Ninety-two percent of Boomerang Pivot Counties (23) exceed the national rate of high school graduation compared to 68% of Retained Pivot Counties (123). For bachelor’s degrees or higher, 32% of Boomerang Pivot Counties (8) exceed the national rate compared to 3% of Retained Pivot Counties (5).
• Both Retained (79.6%) and Boomerang Pivot Counties (78.2%) have a higher-than-average non-Hispanic white population compared to the nationwide percentage (60.1%). In total, 82% of Retained Pivot Counties (149) and 88% of Boomerang Pivot Counties (22) exceed the national rate.

The 206 Pivot Counties are located in 34 states, 11 of which political commentators view as battleground states. Iowa’s 31 Pivot Counties—out of 99 counties statewide—is the most of any state. Half of Maine’s 16 counties are Pivot Counties, the greatest proportion of any state. Maine is also the state with the greatest percentage of its population—47.1%—residing in Pivot Counties. Nine states have 10% or more of their population living in Pivot Counties.

The New York Times’ Trip Gabriel wrote that Trump did well in Pivot Counties in the northern Midwest: “The greatest concentration of pivot counties hug the Mississippi River in Iowa and three other states: Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota. It is a region of small, postindustrial cities that have suffered manufacturing losses, where largely white voters, after years of voting for Democrats, embraced Mr. Trump’s nationalism and culturally backward-gazing message.”

According to Gabriel, Biden had success in suburban Pivot Counties. He wrote of four counties in Minnesota: “Each has a small or medium-size city that is an island of blue voters in a sea of red ones.” Citing Todd Kerner, the then-chair of the Saratoga County [New York] Democrats, Gabriel said Kerner “attributed the about-face to misgivings about the president by college-educated voters in the affluent suburbs of Albany.”

Margin of victory analysis

In 2020, Trump won 181 Retained Pivot Counties across 32 states with a median margin of victory of 13.2 percentage points. Biden won 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties across 16 states with a median margin of victory of 3.4 percentage points.

Looking back to 2016, Trump won the 206 Pivot Counties with a median margin of victory of 9.4 percentage points. Obama won these same counties in 2008 and 2012, with a median margin of victory of 11.9 and 7.3 percentage points, respectively.

Trump’s margin of victory decreased in 68 Retained Pivot Counties and increased in 113. Compared to Obama’s results in 2012, the last time a Democrat won in these counties, Biden’s margin of victory in Boomerang Pivot Counties represents a decrease in 22 and an increase in three.

The table below highlights the five counties with the largest swings in margin of victory for Democrats and Republicans each since 2016. Obama’s margins from 2012 are included for reference.

We’ll be watching how the Pivot Counties vote in the 2024 presidential election and updating our coverage with the latest details as they are available!

Help Desk: states that allow same-day voter registration

At the start of the week, we told you about our 2024 Election Help Desk, a major component of our Voter Toolkit. The Help Desk provides reliable, nonpartisan answers to more than 50 election-related questions on topics ranging from voter registration, to casting a ballot, to the certification of final results. We started the project in 2020 and are excited to bring it back for this election cycle.

Today, let’s look at a topic covered in the Help Desk: same-day voter registration.

Twenty-two states and the District of Columbia have same-day registration provisions allowing voters to register and vote at the same time. Alaska and Rhode Island allow same-day registration to vote only for president and vice-president. North Carolina is the only state that allows same-day registration during the early voting period but not on Election Day.

In states that allow same-day registration, voters must generally provide proof of residency (e.g., utility bill or pay stub) and identity (e.g., driver’s license) at the time of registration.

Click below to learn more about the Help Desk.

Learn all about Ballotpedia’s Voter Toolkit on this episode of On the Ballot

On Monday’s special episode of On the Ballot, Ballotpedia’s weekly podcast, Ballotpedia’s Communications Team walks our listeners through our Voter Toolkit to help prepare them for this November. The toolkit is one easy-to-navigate page about the logistics of voting.

Communications Manager of Shared Channels Abigail Campbell and Public and Media Relations Manager Carley Allensworth discuss all things Voter Toolkit, including core features such as Ballotpedia’s 2024 Election Help Desk, Ballotpedia’s Elections Calendar, and Ballotpedia’s Sample Ballot. Allensworth then shows our listeners how to physically use the toolkit. If you weren’t planning on watching this episode on YouTube, maybe you should!

Subscribe to On the Ballot on YouTube or your preferred podcast app to learn more about the Voter Toolkit! This episode is available now.