At the lowest level little league baseball games being played on any given night, a spectator can see infielders more interested in picking dandelions than picking ground balls move closer to either of the two foul lines based on the handedness of the hitter.
At the highest levels, that positioning is a great deal more complex, and most importantly, much less static.
A lot of what the St. Louis Cardinals thought they knew about the best way to deploy their infielders changed following a tough defensive 2023 season, and that work has borne out in measurable positioning changes. While some aspects of their alignments have looked similar year over year, there is one glaring change. Per Baseball Savant, the Cardinals shaded their infield 10.7% of the time against right-handed hitters in 2023, good for 7th in MLB.
This season, that number is .8%, 27th in the league. That reflects a drastic change in approach, and a clear delineation that seeks to cede larger chunks of the left side of the infield to the athleticism of Nolan Arenado and Masyn Winn at third base and shortstop.
“One of the biggest differences from last year to this year is overall positioning,” manager Oli Marmol said. “Starting point to where the ball’s hit, where we’re actually standing.”
Those changes were the result of a winter spent studying what went wrong with a 93-loss season which came off the rails in all facets of the game. Some of those changes came with a great deal of static over signal, given the team’s midseason sell-off, early ends to the season for some players with injury, and the general slip in quality of play that might be expected to accompany a losing season.
With an offseason built around acquiring veteran pitching, though, the Cardinals sought to understand more about how they were fielding, and the best way to get the most out of the players in whom they invested.
“We did a really deep dive,” Marmol explained. “Our coaching staff and our analytics department, our baseball [development] department, to figure out where changes could be made. It was a pretty long exercise, but we felt like we ended in a good spot and then we implemented it right at the end of spring training.”
A look into the numbers provided by StatCast’s Outs Above Average metric opens a window into some of those adjustments and where they’ve been seen. Those totals are cumulative, so it can be difficult to compare a partial season to a full season, but trends show a team which has improved at third base and declined very slightly at shortstop and first base.
Paul DeJong, the long-time Cardinal shortstop who is now with the Royals, has played infield for five teams in the last two seasons. In being positioned by a full sixth of the league, he has gained perspective on what teams desire in their positioning – and in what they’re prepared to surrender.
“We have to give something up in order to get something,” DeJong said. “I think you’re constantly weighing those battles.”
The numbers also demonstrate a cratering at second base, which was largely manned by Nolan Gorman in both seasons. Gorman registered a -2 on the OAA leaderboard at the end of 2023; entering play Friday, his 2024 total is -6.
“Last week, me and [first base/infield coach] Stubby [Clapp] talked about changing it up against righties,” Winn said. “I’m gonna give [Arenado] a little bit more room, just because a lot of balls will cross over [in front of shortstop] that he gets. There’s no point in me being that far over when I could cover more ground up the middle, so we’ll probably shift more there.”
Again, data demonstrates that particular weakness. Gorman has been worth -4 OAA moving laterally toward third base in 2024 and -7 OAA against righty hitters; against lefties, he’s a positive defensive player, registering a value of one.
Winn has been worth -4 outs moving laterally toward third base, seemingly reinforcing one reason he highlighted for moving further up the middle – balls hit deep between the shortstop and third baseman are likelier to become hits regardless, making it smarter to surrender positioning there and attempt to tighten up the ship up the middle, where more natural throws might become more outs.
“The ones up the middle that are little dinks, I feel like I could be getting,” Winn said. “Taking away more hits, I think the biggest hole is up the middle.”
The changes the Cardinals made may have shown up negatively for Gorman, but they have played a role in overall improvement. A team which was 19th in the league in 2023 by outs above average now ranks 13th; that climb is worth runs, and runs are worth wins. By maximizing some of their most impactful defensive players, the Cardinals have been willing to yield elsewhere.
They have given in an attempt to get.
“You want to start with it being personnel neutral,” Marmol explained. “You can tweak it based on what your individual skills are, based on who’s standing at that spot on that given day.”
And that can change from day to day. What was true for Arenado, Gorman and Winn on Friday could change by Monday based on the work Marmol, Clapp, and others are putting in.
There are no perfect answers, but the Cardinals continue to shift to get as close to the mark as possible.
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