NOAA predicts an 85% above-average season with expectations of 17-25 named storms

ABILENE, Texas ( KTAB/KRBC ) – After a relatively calm summer, tropical activity has really ramped up as we’ve moved into September. But is this typical for hurricane season, or just a temporary spike? Well, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration , this time of year tends to be the peak of the season, even though hurricane season officially starts on June 1.

This year, NOAA predicted an 85% chance of an above-average season, with expectations of 17-25 named storms and 8-13 hurricanes, with 4-7 being major hurricanes (category 3,4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). According to NOAA, forecasters have 70% confidence in these ranges.

This increase in hurricane activity is driven by a few key factors, such as near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the development of La Niña in the Pacific, weaker Atlantic trade winds, and reduced wind shear—all of which contribute to favorable conditions for tropical storm and hurricane development.

Even though we’re expecting an above-normal season, we still tend to see the highest activity around this time of year. But why? While tropical waves roll off the coast of Africa every three days throughout the entire season, the environment doesn’t typically become favorable for storm development until late summer. That’s when the ocean is at its warmest, and wind shear (“variation in wind velocity occurring along a direction at right angles to the wind’s direction and tending to exert a turning force”)—which can tear storms apart— and allows them to die down.

Earlier in the season, ocean temperatures aren’t quite warm enough to fuel storms, and wind shear is still strong heading into May. And while it diminishes over the summer, it doesn’t fully become favorable for storms until late August. With both warmer water and less wind shear in September, conditions are perfect for the peak of the season.

So far this month, we’ve seen Hurricane Francine, Tropical Storm Gordon, and Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, with three more systems likely to develop over the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center. One of those areas of interest is in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. It has about a 40% chance of formation over the next week, and while there’s no official track yet, it’s projected to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico shortly after the low-pressure forms early next week.

This system could affect us here locally, depending on where, when, and if it makes landfall. If it does, we could see an increase in moisture and possibly a decent amount of rain here in the Big Country, which can help our drought conditions.

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