Debby expected to rapidly intensify in Gulf. ‘Historic’ rainfall possible on East Coast

Tropical Storm Debby is becoming stronger and better organized in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and will likely undergo rapid intensification this weekend before making landfall in Florida as a hurricane, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.

Debby has winds of 60 mph at 7 a.m. Saturday and was moving north-northwest at 13 mph.

The above-average temperatures in the eastern Gulf, paired with low wind shear, will give Debby the opportunity to strengthen significantly before landfall.

The U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunters are flying into Debby Saturday for more information.

The storm is expected to eventually make a north-northeasterly turn and make landfall Monday afternoon in Florida’s Big Bend region, NWS hurricane forecaster John Cangialosi said at 5 a.m. Saturday. There is a high confidence from all guidance models for this forecast landfall scenario.

What is more unsure, however, is what happens after Debby moves over Florida and over the southeastern U.S., including Georgia and South Carolina.

Cangialosi said Debby will weaken to a tropical storm and slow down significantly after landfall. Steering currents are also expected to weaken.

“There is a lot of model disagreement on whether or not the center of Debby stays inland or moves off the coast of the southeast U.S. by the middle of the week,” he said, adding that a building ridge should turn Debby back inland over southeast Georgia and the South Carolina coast by the middle of the next.

‘Historic’ rainfall possible in Georgia, South Carolina

Debby’s slowing down and staying over land for days could potentially result in a “significant flooding event” in the U.S. southeast, Cangialosi said.

Up to 16 inches of rain is possible in the Big Bend region, and up to 20 inches could dump on Savannah and the South Carolina lowcountry, including the Charleston area, according to the NHC forecast.

“This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of severe and widespread flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected,” the NHC said Saturday.

Florida, Georgia, SC should brace for Debby

A hurricane warning is in effect in Florida’s Big Bend region, and the area could see significant storm surge of 6 to 10 feet, rain and flash flooding and the hurricane makes landfall. River flooding is also possible.

Tropical storm conditions are expected further south down Florida’s west coast, including in Tampa Bay and the Florida Keys.

Flash, urban and river flooding is also expected in southern Georgia and in South Carolina, where Debby will be a dayslong rain event.

Debby, the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, is not expected to impact Louisiana.

Keep up with the latest tropics updates at hurricanes.gov .