2024 3M Open: Favorite Outright Bets, Long Shot Picks

The 2024 3M Open gets underway on Thursday, July 25, at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. With golf's four major championships now come and gone this season, the focus shifts toward the upcoming FedEx Cup Playoffs, where just 70 players qualify for the first leg of the postseason (compared to 125 players in 2021-22). The 3M Open is the penultimate event of the 2024 regular season, meaning time is ticking for players to secure their spot in the top 70 of the FedEx Cup standings.

Established in 1999 with Arnold Palmer behind the original design, TPC Twin Cities stretches 7,431 yards and features large Bentgrass green complexes, four-inch Bluegrass rough, 72 sand bunkers, and 13 holes with water hazards. Prior to the event being promoted from the Champions Tour to the PGA Tour, the course went through a redesign led by Minnesota native Tom Lehman in 2018 to make adjustments for modern technology. Similar to most Florida-based tracks, water serves as the primary course defense at TPC Twin Cities. However, the tournament typically becomes a birdie fest, as three of the five winners have reached at least 19-under en route to victory.

Following back-to-back events in Scotland, most of the Tour's biggest stars have unsurprisingly elected to rest up this week instead of making the journey to Minnesota. Only five of the top 30 players in the Official World Golf Ranking are part of the 156-player field — Sahith Theegala, 2022 winner Tony Finau, Keegan Bradley, Akshay Bhatia, and Sam Burns. Notable up-and-comers Nick Dunlap , Michael Thorbjornsen, Luke Clanton, Neal Shipley, and Ben James are also part of the field.

Related: 2024 3M Open: Course & Field Preview, Key Stats, + Odds

Let's get into my favorite plays this week at TPC Twin Cities!

FAVORITE OUTRIGHTS

Tony Finau (+1200 BetRivers Enhanced)

Finau has made the trip to Minnesota for all six editions of the 3M Open, and for good reason. The 34-year-old veteran has a win, two more top-seven finishes, and no result worse than 28th in five career starts at TPC Twin Cities. It's his happy place.

While Finau missed the cut last week at Royal Troon, the result doesn't paint the full picture of his performance. He impressively shot even par in the opening round before getting wiped out Friday on the wrong side of the weather draw. Casting Finau aside after one shotty round in miserable and uber-strenuous conditions would be foolish, as he's been playing remarkably well over the last two months. Even with his Open Championship blunder, Finau has racked up six top-20s in eight starts since mid-May, including a T3 at the U.S. Open and a T5 at the Travelers Championship.

Among all players in the field this week, Finau ranks first in SG: Approach, sixth in SG: Tee To Green, sixth in Par-3s: 200+ Yards, sixth in Total Driving, 10th in Proximity 175-200 Yards, 12th in Par-4s: 400-450 Yards, 11th in Par-5s: 550-600 Yards, and 18th in Proximity 150-175 Yards over the past 24 rounds. It's also worth noting Finau ranks sixth in SG: Detroit GC and 3rd in SG: TPC Twin Cities, with wins on both courses in his career. He's been phenomenal in the Midwest United States.

During the early portion of the season, Finau was plagued by an ice-cold putter that cost him countless chances on the weekend. However, the Lehi, Utah native has flipped the script recently, as he's gained strokes on the greens in five of his past six outings. His track record with the flat stick on this course is even more encouraging, as he's gained strokes putting in four consecutive years here.

It's been since early February the last time I wagered on the betting favorite in a tournament, but I believe it's justified this week given Finau's impeccable course history and spectacular lead-in form. We ride with Big Tone in the Twin Cities.

Cameron Davis (+5000 BetRivers Enhanced)

Davis is another player who's shined in the Midwest, with both of his PGA Tour victories coming at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit. The 29-year-old Aussie has also been tremendous in his career at TPC Twin Cities, finishing inside the top 16 in three of the past four years.

Even though Davis picked up a win less than one month ago in the Motor City, he unfortunately still didn't qualify to play in the Open Championship at Royal Troon. But that didn't stop him from trekking to Scotland for the Genesis Scottish Open, where he gained over four strokes ball striking and another four strokes around the greens en route to a T26 result. Davis has now popped for over eight strokes from tee to green in back-to-back starts, and I'm willing to bet he keeps that form rolling on a course where he's clearly comfortable.

Another reason to believe Davis can rattle off another high-end finish this week in Minnesota is how strongly he's performed on the putting greens in previous trips. The Seattle, Washington native has gained over half a stroke with the flat stick only once since the Masters in mid-April but has accomplished that feat three times in the past four years at TPC Twin Cities. If Davis can claw out one or two strokes of putting, he should be live to win the tournament given his current tee-to-green prowess.

Davis doesn't rank inside the top 30 players in my model this week, however, he does rank inside the top 30 at Detroit Golf Club, TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic), AND TPC Twin Cities. His past results in the Midwest United States are too strong to ignore, as he's finished inside the top 10 at all three tournaments. Additionally, Davis ranks 17th in Total Driving over the past 24 rounds, another key skill set I'm targeting this week.

LONG SHOT PICKS

Ben Griffin (+5500 BetRivers Enhanced)

Griffin has been on fire with his irons lately, gaining over 2.5 strokes to the field in five of his past seven outings. The 28-year-old missed the cut at the Open Championship last week but does have two top-five finishes since the beginning of June, both coming in weaker fields where birdie-making is paramount.

Despite entering this week with 55/1 odds, Griffin rates out as the fifth-best player in the field, according to my model. The Sea Island, Georgia resident ranks third in SG: Approach, 13th in SG: Tee To Green, 14th in Par-4s: 400-450 Yards, 23rd in Birdie or Better Percentage, 23rd in Opportunities Gained, and 23rd in SG: Putting (Bentgrass) over the past 24 rounds. Griffin also ranks inside the top 27 at Detroit Golf Club (27th), TPC Deere Run (1st), and TPC Twin Cities (14th).

Griffin made his tournament debut here last year, and he gained strokes in all four major categories en route to a T20 result. It's also worth pointing out he gained nearly 1.5 strokes on the putting greens, which has been an area he's lacked consistency throughout this season. However, there's no denying Griffin has the putting upside capable to win a tournament, as five of his last seven gains have been for at least two strokes to the field. He gained over seven strokes with the flat stick at the John Deere Classic and over five strokes at the RBC Canadian Open.

With sturdy form from tee to green in recent weeks and reason to believe in his putter, I'll take a chance on Griffin at 55/1 odds.

Rico Hoey (+8000 BetRivers Enhanced)

Hoey didn't make the trip across the Atlantic for the tournaments in Scotland but posted a pair of incredible results the past two weeks at the ISCO Championship (T2) and Barracuda Championship (T8). The 28-year-old had an opportunity to win both tournaments entering the final round, and despite coming up short on each occasion, he should learn from those pivotal experiences moving forward.

After missing five consecutive cuts from late April through mid-June, Hoey has seemingly found something in his game recently, with three top-10s in his past four starts. First, the ball striking has been marvelous, as he's popped for over three strokes from tee to green in each of those four starts. However, the recent uptick in his performance on the greens is perhaps what's turned around his season, as he's gained strokes with the putter in five straight events. All five have been for gains of over one stroke to the field. For reference, Hoey gained strokes putting just twice in his first 11 measured starts in 2024.

Among all players in the field, Hoey ranks ninth in Total Driving, 15th in SG: Off The Tee, 24th in SG: Tee To Green, 28th in Birdie or Better Percentage, 29th in Driving Distance, and 30th in SG: Par-5s (550-600 Yards) over the past 24 rounds. The Rancho Cucamonga, California native has already established himself as one of the premier drivers on Tour, and his total-driving abilities should bode well on a soft TPC Twin Cities this week.

After a few close calls in recent weeks, I wouldn't be surprised to see Hoey in the mix again this weekend in search of his breakthrough moment. The kid absolutely is talented enough — it's just about putting it together now on Sunday.

All statistics from the PGA Tour website or RickRunGood.com *

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