Ohtani Status, White Sox Managerial Search, Team Spending, Draft Lottery, and Other Cubs Bullets

Let me tell you how much I DO NOT WANT to talk about the end of the Bears game . I am grateful that, officially, it is not in my job description to do so. With apologies to Luis, Patrick, Matt, and Michael.

I will make only one comment, as it was the weird parallel that came into my mind as I sat there, slack-jawed, unbelieving of what just happened: I felt like the Cubs somehow just gave up a five-run walk-off homer.

• Even after his partial shoulder dislocation, the expectation is that Shohei Ohtani will play tonight in New York for Game Three of the World Series. From Dave Roberts : “He still has to go through the workout and swing the bat. But [Sunday] feels better than [Saturday], and our assumption is [Monday’s] going to feel better than today. So with that, that’s what I’m banking on …. I think that taking dry swings, which he’s done, then obviously taking balls off the tee, batting practice in the cage, that’s going to be telling. I think that he’s obviously very well aware of himself and his body. So if he feels good enough to go, then I see no reason why he wouldn’t be in there.”

• It’d be kinda wild if the White Sox were the team that finally made Will Venable a manager:

• That’s just gonna be such an ugly job for whoever gets it. You’re looking at being the steward of a rebuilding club for at least a couple years, having to mark success in all kinds of ways that aren’t about the standings. And if you don’t survive through to the part where the team is winning a lot, then you very well may never get another managerial opportunity.

• The Cardinals’ TV deal with Bally/Diamond was reportedly worth $78 million per year, but that could take at least a 20% hit heading into next season. Combine that with flagging attendance, and you have a situation where the Cardinals are probably going to see successive years with a meaningful drop in revenue. All the more reason to expect they really are going to head into a true rebuild in the transition from John Mozeliak to Chaim Bloom.

• Relatedly, the Texas Rangers – another club whose revenues have been hit by the Diamond bankruptcy (Texas has decided to go out on its own next season) – are reportedly planning to dip under the luxury tax in 2025. They have some wiggle room, but also a lot of outgoing players, so I wouldn’t expect the Rangers to be huge spenders this offseason, and they may even try to trade away some contracts. (They should totally send Jacob deGrom to the Cubs for nothing and also eat half of the contract, this is a very realistic parenthetical.)

• I think I’ve gotta agree with Greg here:

• You may not immediately see the connection, but think of the extreme examples: let’s say the Cubs are considering an early run at Max Fried, who will be a Qualified Free Agent. And let’s say they are wanting to draw a very firm line in what they’re willing to offer – exactly this much value, and no more . But if they were to, by some crazy 0.68% twist of fate, win the draft lottery and get that top pick, then their bonus pool for the 2025 draft would EXPLODE higher. Why does that matter? Well, suddenly the prospect of losing your second and fifth round picks – AND THE ASSOCIATED BONUS SLOTS – for signing a Qualified Free Agent would be a whole lot less painful. Maybe that “exactly this much value” bit in signing Fried creeps higher, since the relative pain goes down, and maybe that makes the difference in getting Fried on board in late November (and, in turn, dramatically impacts the rest of the offseason).

• That, again, is the most extreme example. But it is just one example of how the lottery timing can impact offseason planning. And if you take that extreme version, plus all the lesser versions, and spread it across a dozen teams, many of whom have much better lottery odds, and suddenly you can see how the market could be impacted. It’s just another reason for teams to wait, wait, wait, wait and not doing anything, and for players to wait, wait, wait, wait while they figure out where their best offers will actually come from. The situation would be improved by a lottery at the start of November, and I don’t immediately see any downside whatsoever.