Boise State Football Preview, Best Players, Top Transfers, Season Prediction, Win Total 2024

Boise State College Football Preview 2024

Appalachian State.

That’s it. In the ten-year College Football Playoff era, App State is the only team that beats Boise State in the dubious honor of winning the most games without being in the College Football Playoff .

The Broncos are just one win behind the Mountaineers, but that might change very, very soon.

No, Boise State isn’t quite the dominant force it was under Bryan Harsin - remember Bryan Harsin? - and before him Chris Petersen, but if you’re sensing that things are different now under Spencer Danielson, you’re not wrong.

The Broncos switched coaches late in the season from Andy Avalos to Danielson, Boise State ripped off a few wins and a Mountain West title, and more importantly, the returning team is LOADED.

The offensive line is almost all back. The defense is mostly all back. The receivers aren’t back, but superstar RB Ashton Jeanty is, and coming in is the No. 1 recruit of 2023 - at least on some charts - Malachi Nelson, who was supposed to be USC’s quarterback but now is in Boise.

Combine everything that’s returning with a favorite Mountain West schedule, and now the program that’s overdue to be in the College Football Playoff should be the top Group of Five champion that gets the nod.

It’s Boise State. It deserves it.

Boise State Football Preview 2024: Offense

- The offense kicked it in early in 2022 when Dirk Koetter took over the offensive coordinator gig, and it didn’t stop. Boise State finished sixth in the nation in rushing offense, the big plays in the passing game were there, and everything was almost perfectly balanced with 3,098 passing yards and 3,008 on the ground.

- The backfield is amazing. Star QB Taylen Green took off for Arkansas, but in comes Malachi Nelson, an elite recruit for USC who became a surprise get for an attack that might have just upgraded. He might not run like Green, but he should grow into a more consistent passer.

Top receiver Eric McAlister left for TCU, but the receivers should get a little more work. The transfer portal is helping, but the three veterans in place should shine - Prince Strachan averaged over 22 yards per catch on his 12 grabs - and TE Matt Lauter averaged over 17 yards per grab. Nelson will make everyone better after they get their timing down.

- Boise State might have the best running back in the nation. It was a huge break keeping Ashton Jeanty around after his 1,347-yard, 14-touchdown season, with 43 catches for 569 yards and five scores.

Jeanty and solid backup Jambres Dunbar will work behind the Mountain West’s best line. Left tackle Kage Casey is the star of a veteran bunch that gets back four starters.

Boise State Football Preview 2024: Defense

- The defense had a fire meltdowns early against Washington and UCF - no shame there - but it clamped down and was strong right up until it got rocked by UCLA in the LA Bowl. With eight starters expected back, this group should be even better.

It starts with the elite pass rush that gets back Ahmed Hassanein, who led the team with 12.5 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss in an all-star season. He’s great on one side, and dangerous prospect Jayden Virgin-Morgan should do a lot more on the other side of Hassanein.

The tackle combination of Herbert Gums on the nose along with the Braxton Fely and Michael Callahan rotation should hold up.

- The linebackers can make big plays, too. Andrew Simpson was second on the team in sacks and was third in tackles with 66 stops. Marco Notarainni takes over for DJ Schramm in the middle - he’ll almost certainly lead the team in stops, but …

- The safeties make lots and lots of tackles. Alexander Teubner led the team with 85 tackles and got into the backfield, too. Seyi Oladipo is a freelancer who was second on the team with 70 stops, and Rodney Robinson was fourth with 61.

Corner A’Marion McCoy is coming off a big year. The other side has options helped by Cal transfer Jeremiah Erby getting a look with veteran Markel Reed. They’re all solid.

Key To The Boise State Football Season

Keep teams from hitting their passes.
The Broncos were able to win a few key games when the secondary was getting picked apart, but for the most part there were problems against anyone who was sharp.

They were 3-6 when allowing teams to hit better than 55% of their passes, and was 5-0 when keeping teams under that. To take this even further, over the last two seasons Boise State is 15-0 when holding offenses to under 55%, and 3-10 when quarterbacks did better than that.

Boise State Key Player

Marco Notarainni, LB Jr.
It’s not like there’s any concern about the middle of the linebacking corps. DJ Schramm is done - he led the team in tackles in 2022 and came up with 48 last season - and now it’ll be interesting to see how Notarainni goes from very good to potentially amazing.

The 6-3, 240-pound Honorable Mention All-Mountain West performer made 53 tackles with there sacks last season, and now he needs to grow into the leader of the defense. He started five times last year, but this might be his defense now.

Boise State Football Top Transfer, Biggest Transfer Loss

Top Transfer In: Malachi Nelson, QB RFr.
The pressure will be off the charts.

Nelson is one of the highest-ranked recruits Boise State was ever able to bring in. Nelson was supposed to be the heir apparent to Caleb Williams at USC, but now he’s a Bronco.

A five-star talent with NFL upside, he’s got all the tools. At the very least, he needs to come up with a great passing season to make the receivers around him shine.

Top Transfer Out: Eric McAlister, WR Jr.
Taylen Green is actually the top Bronco gone - he left for Arkansas where he should be outstanding - but getting Malachi Nelson makes everything okay.

McAlister was the team’s leading receiver with 47 catches for 873 yards and five touchdowns - averaging almost 19 yards per grab - but he missed the last five games. He’s off being a key part for the TCU receiving corps now.

Boise State Key Game

at Oregon, Sept. 7
If Boise State really is a College Football Playoff-caliber team from the Group of Five teams, it should rip through the Mountain West season - at the very least it should get into the conference title game.

Winning at Oregon isn’t a must, but coming up with a strong performance and good showing would go a long way to making the CFP committee interested in making the Broncos one of the 12. (The top Group of Five conference champ gets in.)

10 Best Boise State Football Players

1. Ashton Jeanty, RB Jr.
2. Ahmed Hassanein, DE Sr.
3. Andrew Simpson, LB Jr.
4. Malachi Nelson, QB RFr.
5. Marco Notarainni, LB Jr.
6. Seyi Oladipo, S Sr.
7. Alexander Teubner, S Sr.
8. Kage Casey, OT Soph.
9. Jonah Dalmas, PK Sr.
10. A’Marion McCoy, CB Sr.

Boise State 2023 Fun Stats

- Penalties: Opponents 82 for 648 yards, Boise State 52 for 448 yards

- Boise State 1st Quarter Scoring: 79, 2nd Quarter Scoring: 181

- Sacks: Boise State 36 for 215 yards, Opponents 16 for 88 yards

Boise State Football 2024 Win Total Prediction: What to Expect This Season

Go off, Boise State.

There’s no Fresno State on the Mountain West schedule, and missing Air Force and Colorado State is a big deal.

Who’s getting the Broncos in the conference? There might be a fight at UNLV, and going to Wyoming is never easy, but they should be no less than 6-1 with a shot at the Mountain West title.

But that’s where this gets interesting. Boise State gets Mountain West friends-with-benefits games against Washington State and Oregon State. Both games against former Pac-12ers are at home, and they don’t count in the Mountain West, but they’re both challenging.

That, combine with long trip to Georgia State to start the season, followed up by a showdown at Oregon, and there are challenges. But again, this team is just that good to come up with a third straight trip to the Mountain West Championship with a second ten-win season in three years.

Set The Boise State Win Total At … 9

Likely Wins: Nevada, Portland State

50/50 Games: at Georgia State, at Hawaii, Oregon State, San Diego State, at San Jose State, at UNLV, Utah State, at Wyoming, Washington State

Likely Losses: at Oregon

2024 Boise State Football Schedule

Aug 31 at Georgia State
Sept 7 at Oregon
Sept 14 OPEN DATE
Sept 21 Portland State
Sept 28 Washington State
Oct 5 Utah State
Oct 12 at Hawaii
Oct 19 OPEN DATE
Oct 26 at UNLV
Nov 2 San Diego State
Nov 9 Nevada
Nov 16 at San Jose State
Nov 23 at Wyoming
Nov 30 Oregon State

Missing: Air Force, Colorado State, Fresno State, New Mexico