Emerson national poll finds Harris with a lead on Trump

The poll is the first Emerson survey following President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the race.

An Emerson College Polling national survey released Thursday found Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump 50% to 46%.

The poll, which is the first Emerson survey following President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the race, only included “very likely voters” in its analysis.

Five percent of likely voters were undecided, and when allocating undecided voters’ support, Harris led 52% to 48%.

When accounting for third-party candidates, Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. took 4% of support, leaving Harris at 48% and Trump at 44%.

Last month’s poll found Trump leading Biden 46% to 43%, with 11% undecided.

Executive Director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball reported that likely voters under 30 are shifting toward Harris by nine points and voters over 70 are supporting Harris over Trump 51% to 48%. Independents are also leaning Harris, 46% to 45%, he said in the report.

Fifty-one percent of voters had a “favorable view” of Harris, while 45% had a “favorable view” of Trump, and 49% had an “unfavorable view” of Harris, while 54% had an “unfavorable view” of Trump.

Thirty-nine percent of voters had a “favorable view” of vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and JD Vance, with 39% holding an “unfavorable view” of Walz and 49% with an “unfavorable view” of Vance. Twenty-two percent had never heard of Walz, while 12% had never heard of Vance.

Forty percent of voters said the economy was the “most important issue facing the nation,” followed by immigration at 17%, threats to democracy at 12%, housing affordability at 7%, and health care at 7%.

Ninety-three percent of voters were “extremely” or “very motivated” to vote this election cycle.

“While the overall share of likely voters motivated to vote had little movement, Black voters who say they are ‘extremely’ or ‘very’ motivated to vote this November increased eleven points, from 80% to 91%,” Kimball said.