What oddsmakers are projecting for Drake Maye in first start and Patriots’ season after QB change

Oddsmakers are setting pretty low expectations for Maye and the Patriots in Sunday's game and the rest of the season.

The Patriots’ decision to make Drake Maye their new starting quarterback might have caused some to have higher expectations for the team when they take on the Texans on Sunday and for the rest of the season. However, oddsmakers are setting relatively low expectations for the rookie in his debut.

Maye’s projected to have fewer than 200 passing yards in his first NFL start at most sportsbooks. His passing yard total is set at 164.5 yards at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday afternoon. Additionally, Maye’s passing touchdowns total is only set at 0.5 touchdowns at DraftKings. His interceptions total is also set at 0.5 interceptions thrown, with the juice being on the over for both (-145 for over 0.5 passing touchdowns, -150 for over 0.5 interceptions).

Those projections are actually pretty in line with how Jacoby Brissett played in the first five games of the season. The veteran threw for roughly 139 yards per game. As he only had two passing touchdowns and an interception through five games, Brissett obviously averaged fewer than a touchdown pass and an interception thrown per game.

Maye might be a greater rushing threat than Brissett, too. The rookie rushed for 32 yards over three preseason games, including a rushing touchdown. His ability to run in college also helped him become the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, rushing for 1,209 yards and 16 touchdowns over 30 career games at North Carolina.

That rushing ability is reflected in the odds for Sunday’s game. Maye’s rushing yards total is set at 28.5 at DraftKings. Brissett had rushed for 10.2 yards per game through the first five weeks.

Of course, the Patriots are hoping that inserting a player with Maye’s upside will help turn their offense around. They ranked 31st in the league in yards (250.8) and points (12.4) per game entering Week 6.

But Maye’s insertion hasn’t really changed oddsmakers’ outlook for the Patriots in Sunday’s game or for how the team will play the rest of the way following their 1-4 start. New England is a 6.5-point underdog for its game against Houston as of Saturday, which is just a half-point improvement from where the line opened at.

As for the rest of the season, the Patriots’ projected win total is still low, sitting at 4.5 wins at DraftKings.That’s tied with the Browns and Panthers for the lowest in the league. They also have the worst odds to make the playoffs (+1400).

Maye is also a bit of a longshot to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. His odds sit at +4000, which are the ninth-best odds to win the award. He certainly has some ground to make up if he wants to win the top honor for an offensive rookie as Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, and a handful of other offensive rookies have gotten off to stellar starts.

But if Maye can do something that oddsmakers view as a long shot at happening and lead the Patriots to the playoffs, maybe he’ll have a chance to win the award.