Bruins Game 1 lineup prediction 2.0: Where does Pat Maroon fit in?

We first did this exercise three weeks ago , with 12 games left in the season. Now there are just three games left in the regular season, and things have changed a little bit over these last few weeks, so we figured it was a good time to take another crack at predicting the Bruins’ Game 1 lineup.

The Bruins have mostly played some very good hockey over this most recent stretch, winning five of their next six games after coach Jim Montgomery called his team out in practice on March 25. Their four-game winning streak came to an end Thursday, though, as the Hurricanes avenged Boston’s win in Carolina last week with a 4-1 victory at TD Garden.

Montgomery still has some key lineup questions to answer, so without further ado, here’s what we’re thinking:

FORWARDS
Danton Heinen – Pavel Zacha – David Pastrnak
Brad Marchand – Charlie Coyle – Jake DeBrusk
Pat Maroon – Morgan Geekie – Trent Frederic
Johnny Beecher – Jesper Boqvist – Jakub Lauko

Keeping Heinen, Zacha and Pastrnak together is the easiest call up front. They’ve been rolling, with the Bruins outscoring opponents 15-5 with them on the ice and posting an expected goals share of 54.4%, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Montgomery has moved Geekie up to the second line with Marchand and Coyle in recent games and dropped DeBrusk to the third line, but the guess here is that DeBrusk ends up back in that spot by Game 1. Marchand-Coyle-Geekie had a rough night Tuesday, surrendering five scoring chances and recording none themselves. None of them had a shot on goal. Marchand-Coyle-DeBrusk at least has a solid track record, with the Bruins outscoring opponents 13-8 with them on the ice. DeBrusk does need to get going offensively, though, as he’s now gone seven games without a point.

Pat Maroon is expected to make his Bruins debut Saturday night in Pittsburgh. Montgomery has to figure out where the veteran grinder fits best, without much time to do so before Game 1. There are a couple options. If Montgomery keeps Geekie on the second line and keeps DeBrusk-Boqvist-Frederic as his third line (that was the only line that actually did play well Tuesday), Maroon could go on the fourth line with Beecher and either Lauko or James van Riemsdyk.

Or if DeBrusk moves back up, Maroon could get a look on the third line with Geekie and Frederic. Geekie and Frederic have generally been good together, but Montgomery had been unable to find the right third piece for them. Van Riemsdyk had handled those duties earlier this season, but he hasn’t had a point in a month and hasn’t scored a goal in nearly two. Not only is that not good enough to win a third-line job, but it might not be good enough to stay in the lineup, period. Trying Maroon with Geekie and Frederic could be worth a shot.

The best version of the Bruins’ fourth line has had Justin Brazeau on it, but unfortunately he is currently week-to-week with an upper-body injury. It seems unlikely he’ll be ready for Game 1.

DEFENSE
Hampus Lindholm – Charlie McAvoy
Matt Grzelcyk – Brandon Carlo
Parker Wotherspoon – Andrew Peeke

The loaded-up Lindholm-McAvoy pairing had a down night Tuesday, as they were on the ice for two of the Hurricanes’ goals (McAvoy did also score Boston's lone goal). They have otherwise been dominant together (56.8% expected goals share, 18-11 edge in actual goals), so we’re leaning towards keeping them together.

Grzelcyk and Carlo haven’t always looked great together, but Tuesday night was encouraging, as the Bruins outshot Carolina 7-2 with them on the ice. Montgomery can easily flip Lindholm and Grzelcyk back into their more common spots (Grzelcyk with McAvoy, Lindholm with Carlo) any time he sees fit, too.

Wotherspoon-Peeke continues to look like the ideal third pairing for the Bruins. They have played rock-solid defense while also bringing some attitude and physicality. Shutting down Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett in Saturday’s win over the Panthers solidified their case.

Mason Lohrei and Kevin Shattenkirk could be called upon in the event of injury or poor play. Lohrei could be a Grzelcyk replacement if the veteran can’t hold up, while Shattenkirk has played well with both Wotherspoon and Peeke and has the versatility to play the left or right side on the third pairing.

GOALIE
Linus Ullmark

Ullmark continues to outplay Jeremy Swayman since the All-Star break and certainly appears to be in line for the Game 1 start. He is 6-3-5 with a .922 save percentage and 2.17 goals-against average since the break, while Swayman is 9-6-1 with a .900 save percentage and 2.98 GAA. Ullmark has allowed more than two goals just once in his last eight starts, while Swayman has surrendered three or more in five of his last seven, including four on 26 shots in Tuesday’s loss to Carolina.

The more interesting discussion continues to be whether Montgomery will rotate after Game 1. All signs point to yes, at least for the first few games of the first round.