Debby's path will determine how much rain Massachusetts gets

BOSTON - Before the remnants of Tropical Storm Debby approach Massachusetts, the WBZ Weather Team is continuing the NEXT Weather Alert for another round of downpours Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.

In addition, the National Weather Service has placed all of southern New England in a "marginal" risk for excessive rainfall. This means they believe there is a 5% or greater risk of rainfall exceeding the flash flood guidance for our area.

Timeline for heavy rain in Boston

An area of moderate to heavy rainfall will enter our area later Tuesday night.

Heaviest rain is expected between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m.

During the Wednesday morning commute, the intensity of the rain will be lessening, and we will gradually dry out throughout the remaining morning hours.

The second half of Wednesday will be much better with sunshine emerging and very comfy air in place.

We expect another 1-2" of water overnight. There may be a few areas with up to 3".

This shouldn't be enough rain to cause any major or widespread flooding issues.

However, if you are traveling during the downpours there will likely be some ponding on the roadways and localized areas of flooding.

Projected path of Debby

After a very brief break Wednesday PM through part of Thursday, our attention then turns to the remnants of Tropical Storm Debby.

Debby is forecast to remain a weak tropical storm for the next few days as it slowly moves through the Carolinas and Virginia.

Some of the outermost rain bands from Debby will reach our South Coast as early as Thursday late afternoon and evening.

There will be periods of showers with some embedded downpours Thursday night through the day on Friday. This will be an off-and-on rain and not all that impactful.

The heaviest band of rain will come as the center of what was Tropical Storm Debby (it will have lost its tropical characteristics by the time it gets here) makes its pass through the northeast.

The most intense rainfall in a system like this is typically located just to the west of the center's track.

Earlier this week, the consensus was for a track just to our south and east, putting southern New England right in the crosshairs for some hefty rainfall totals.

The big change in the last 24 hours has been for a shift to the west. With the center passing through central and northern New England, the heaviest rain would be located through parts of New York State and northern New Hampshire and Vermont.

This western track would mean a shorter window with heavy rain in southern New England and much lower rainfall totals.

While it is still too early to forecast an exact track and rainfall numbers, this scenario would produce an inch or two of water (or less) in southern New England while as much as 3-6" of rain could fall in far northern New England.

Bottom line, there will certainly be periods of rain from Thursday night through at least part of Saturday, but odds are increasing that we may avoid any serious and significant flooding in our local area.

We will be narrowing our focus in the next 24 hours and have much more detail to come on Wednesday.

The second half of the weekend looks fantastic! Great news for the annual Perseid meteor shower which peaks late Sunday night.