The tropics remain quiet, thanks in part to a patch of Saharan dust that the area National Weather Service's forecasters say is heading westward toward Florida and could begin to impact the Sarasota-Bradenton area on Saturday, potentially bringing hotter days this weekend.
The dust will move north across the state, tending to limit thunderstorm formation as it dries the air out.
That "means less relief from daytime heat in the afternoon," according to the forecast for the Sarasota and Manatee County area.
The current outlook calls for a high Saturday of 93 degrees and 95 degrees on Sunday, compared to the normal of 91 degrees for this time of year.
That could also lead to more heat advisories for the Sarasota area.
"Questions still remain about just how much and how impactful dust could actually be, though," the area weather forecast says, as computer prediction models "are not showing much influence at this time."
What can Sarasota and Manatee counties expect this weekend?
Thunderstorms will be possible throughout the next week, and the ones that do form could have a bigger risk of high winds.
The current weather should remain similar until later next week and high temperatures are likely to remain above 90 degrees for at least the next ten days.
"In summary, a typical summertime pattern will continue. Expect warm, humid mornings, afternoon storms, and quiet evenings. Late next week, the timing could shift earlier, but still is in line with typical patterns for this time of year," the weather service said.
Saharan Dust is coming back. How will it affect Sarasota, Manatee?
Another wave of Saharan dust has spread across the Caribbean and is making its way north. It is expected to impact South Florida by Saturday and cover most of the rest of the state by Sunday.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the Saharan dust worsens air quality and increases the levels of particulate matter in the air, which is why Sarasota County released an air quality warning on July 11.
Saharan dust can suppress hurricane formation, which is good, but can also increase temperatures, which may result in more heat advisories.
Why is Saharan dust covering Sarasota, Manatee?
According to NOAA, the Saharan Air Layer is a mass of very dry, dusty air that forms over the Sahara Desert. It typically forms during the late spring, summer, and early fall, moving over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean every three to five days.
It carries upwards of 66 million tons of dust annually across the ocean and over the Americas.
The plumes typically begin in mid-June and run through mid-August; however, the National Weather Service shares that the dry air can have lasting effects on hurricane season, which can run through November.
What is the Saharan dust forecast for Sarasota, Manatee?
A second wave of dust associated with the same plume could reach South Florida by Tuesday morning.
That dust shouldn't be as thick as the dust expected to arrive over the weekend since it'll be more dispersed by the time it reaches the Florida coast.
What is happening in the tropics?
No disturbances were noted on the tropical outlook map this morning, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, indicating no tropical cyclones are expected over the next several days.
The Hurricane Center is monitoring two tropical waves.
The peak of hurricane season runs from mid-August through mid-October. If your hurricane supplies are running low, or you haven't started an emergency kit, Florida's next sales tax holiday the end of August can help you save money.
How long will the tropics remain quiet?
"There is a lot of dry air and dust moving off of Africa and spreading across the Atlantic" said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert.
"With all the dust and dry air around, it will make it very difficult for anything to develop. There are signs that at the very end of the month and into the start of August, the dry air may begin to back off and atmospheric conditions are looking a little more favorable for tropical development."
What are the chances of a hurricane impacting Florida?
"Since our forecast was released in March, we have been concerned about the Texas coast, Panhandle of Florida, South Florida and the Carolinas as having an increased chance of tropical impacts," DaSilva said.
"We continue to be concerned about those areas. Everyone living in hurricane areas should always have their hurricane plans ready to go.
"We're still expecting a very, very busy season," DaSilva said. "Don't let your guard down. Don't be fooled by the quiet period. We're at the very beginning of hurricane season. It will ramp up and it could ramp up very quickly."
The next storm of the season will be Debby.
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