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Phillies Playoff Math for Bye / Home Field Advantage

By John Foley,

1 days ago

The Phillies are officially Beasts of the East. But there's still much at stake over their final four regular season games. Namely, a bye in the wild card round of the postseason, guaranteed home field advantage over every potential NL playoff series opponent, and guaranteed home field advantage in the World Series.

Here's how the overall MLB standings look entering Wednesday's games:

And here's every possible scenario:

If the Phillies Go 4-0:

- The Phillies would finish with a 97-65 record.

- The Phillies would have a bye in the wild card round. The Brewers could not catch them for a top-two seed because they cannot mathematically top 95 wins.

- The Phillies would clinch guaranteed home field advantage throughout the NLCS if the Dodgers (who have five games remaining) go anything other than 5-0. If the Dodgers go 4-1, the two teams will be tied at 97 wins and the Phils have the tiebreaker advantage.

- The Padres are a nonfactor in this scenario because they cannot mathematically top 96 wins.

- The Phillies would clinch home field advantage over every possible AL opponent if the Yankees (who have five games remaining) go anything other than 5-0. The Yankees have the tiebreaker advantage over the Phils, but can only match 97 wins by winning out.

- The Guardians are a nonfactor in this scenario because they cannot mathematically top 95 wins.

If the Phillies Go 3-1

- The Phillies would finish with a 96-66 record.

- The Phillies would have a bye in the wild card round. The Brewers could not catch them for a top-two seed because they cannot mathematically top 95 wins.

- The Phillies would clinch guaranteed home field advantage throughout the NLCS if the Dodgers (who have five games remaining) go anything other than 5-0 or 4-1. If the Dodgers go 3-2, the two teams will be tied at 96 wins and the Phils have the tiebreaker advantage.

- The Padres are a nonfactor in this scenario because they cannot mathematically top 96 wins and the Phillies have the tiebreaker advantage.

- The Phillies would clinch home field advantage over every possible AL opponent if the Yankees (who have five games remaining) go anything other than 5-0 or 4-1. The Yankees have the tiebreaker advantage over the Phils, but can only match 96 wins by winning at least four more.

- The Guardians are a nonfactor in this scenario because they cannot mathematically top 95 wins.

If the Phillies Go 2-2

- The Phillies would finish with a 95-67 record.

- The Phillies would have a bye in the wild card round. The Brewers could not catch them for a top-two seed because they cannot mathematically top 95 wins and the Phillies have the tiebreaker advantage.

- The Phillies would clinch guaranteed home field advantage throughout the NLCS if the Dodgers (who have five games remaining) go 2-3 or worse AND the Padres (who have five games remaining) go anything other than 5-0. If the Dodgers go 2-3, they would tie the Phils at 95 wins and the Phils have the tiebreaker advantage. If the Padres go 4-1, they would tie the Phils at 95 wins and the Phils have the tiebreaker advantage.

One interesting wrinkle to this scenario: the Dodgers and Padres play head-to-head in two more games this season.

- The Phillies would clinch home field advantage over every possible AL opponent if the Yankees (who have five games remaining) go 2-3 or worse AND the Guardians (who have four games remaining) go anything other than 4-0. If the Yankees go 3-2, they would tie the Phils at 95 wins and the Yankees have the tiebreaker advantage. If the Guardians go 4-0, they would tie the Phils at 95 wins and the Guardians have the tiebreaker advantage.

If the Phillies Go 1-3

- The Phillies would finish with a 94-68 record.

- The Phillies would have a bye in the wild card round unless the Brewers go 5-0 to get to 95 wins OR the Padres go 5-0 or 4-1. If the Brewers go 4-1, they would tie the Phils at 94 wins and the Phils have the tiebreaker advantage. If the Padres go 3-2, they would tie the Phils at 94 wins and the Phils have the tiebreaker advantage.

- The Phillies would clinch guaranteed home field advantage throughout the NLCS if the Dodgers (who have five games remaining) go 1-4 or worse AND the Padres (who have five games remaining) go anything other than 5-0 or 4-1. If the Dodgers go 1-4, they would tie the Phils at 94 wins and the Phils have the tiebreaker advantage. If the Padres go 3-2, they would tie the Phils at 94 wins and the Phils have the tiebreaker advantage.

Remember, again, that the Dodgers and Padres play head-to-head in two more games this season.

- The Phillies would clinch home field advantage over every possible AL opponent if the Yankees (who have five games remaining) go 1-4 or worse AND the Guardians (who have four games remaining) go anything other than 4-0 or 3-2. If the Yankees go 2-3, they would tie the Phils at 94 wins and the Yankees have the tiebreaker advantage. If the Guardians go 3-1, they would tie the Phils at 94 wins and the Guardians have the tiebreaker advantage.

If the Phillies Go 0-4

- The Phillies would finish with a 93-69 record.

- The Phillies would have a bye in the wild card round unless the Brewers go 4-1 to get to 94 wins OR the Padres go 3-2 or better. If the Brewers go 3-2, they would tie the Phils at 93 wins and the Phils have the tiebreaker advantage. If the Padres go 2-3, they would tie the Phils at 93 wins and the Phils have the tiebreaker advantage.

- The Phillies would only clinch guaranteed home field advantage throughout the NLCS if the Dodgers go 0-5 AND the Padres go 2-3 or worse. If the Dodgers go 0-5, they would tie the Phils at 93 wins and the Phils have the tiebreaker advantage. If the Padres go 2-3, they would tie the Phils at 93 wins and the Phils have the tiebreaker advantage.

Those two games between the Dodgers and Padres are relevant here because they make this path very unlikely: the Padres would have to win their two games vs LA but not win a third game to pass the Phillies.

- The Phillies would only clinch home field advantage over every possible AL opponent if the Yankees (who have five games remaining) go 0-5 AND the Guardians (who have four games remaining) go 1-4 or worse. If the Yankees go 1-4, they would tie the Phils at 93 wins and the Yankees have the tiebreaker advantage. If the Guardians go 2-2, they would tie the Phils at 93 wins and the Guardians have the tiebreaker advantage.

Short Version:

- If the Phils go 4-0, they probably get everything. But the Dodgers could get home field in the NLCS by going 5-0. And the Yankees could get home field in a WS matchup by going 5-0.

- If the Phils go 3-1, they still lock up a bye. The Dodgers or Yankees would have to go 4-1 to take home field in the NLCS or WS.

- If the Phils go 2-2, they probably still lock up a bye. But home field in the NLCS or WS gets dicey. Cleveland enters the chat.

- If the Phils go 1-3, they would still have a good shot at the bye. Guaranteed home field advantage through the NLCS and WS becomes unlikely.

- If the Phils go 0-4, all bets are off.