Up to 4 inches of rain possible in MN; severe threat near the border

Heavy rain is tracking across Minnesota on Monday and it looks to be a complete washout in the Twin Cities. How much rain falls will depend on where the heaviest band sets up, but it's increasingly looking like it could be right through the metro.

"Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are forecast in east central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin, but there is potential for 3 to 4 inches of rain if thunderstorms develop and move over the same area," says the National Weather Service.

A flood watch has been issued for Dakota, Goodhue and Rice counties in Minnesota, along with a large area of Wisconsin. The watch is in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday morning.

Rain was already falling steadily in the Twin Cities early Monday morning. There might be a lull in precipitation midday before the heaviest rain arrives Monday evening and lasts into the night.

If the HRRR model is accurate, it might mean 1-3+ inches of rain in the Twin Cities and surrounding locations.

The North American Model (NAM) is even more aggressive with higher totals.

There's also a chance for severe storms near the Interstate 90 corridor in southern Minnesota. That's where a warm frontal boundary will be located, which will result in temps in the 80s to near 90 south of the front and temps in the 60s and 70s north of the front. If storms pop on the warm side, they could be nasty and be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes.

Related: Damage in Melrose after reported tornado touchdown

You can see via the HRRR model where the severe potential will exist based on the map below, which shows pretty much zero CAPE (the energy needed for severe storms) near the Twin Cities. You have to go do Mankato and Rochester and points south to find enough juice to create severe weather.