'All severe hazards' possible as storms erupt in Minnesota Thursday

Storms are expected to bring a threat of large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes to Minnesota on Thursday afternoon and the end result could be the third line of severe weather blowing through the Twin Cities this week.

"All severe hazards will be possible with greatest vertical shear supporting a threat of supercells in MN and perhaps northern IA for the first few hours of the convective cycle," says the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), noting that supercells that can stay discrete could have the best setup for tornado production over central Minnesota.

The area the SPC has outlined for a slightly heightened tornado risk (still only a 5% chance in any given area) includes the Twin Cities, St. Cloud and Brainerd.

"Activity overall should evolve into a line of numerous thunderstorms by late afternoon and evening, with severe gusts and marginal hail becoming the dominant concerns," the SPC says.

The National Weather Service is expecting the storms to push through the Twin Cities between 4-7 p.m, though the latest estimate from the HRRR model suggests the 6-8 p.m. timeframe for potentially severe impacts in the metro.

Here's the HRRR model's radar simulation from 11 a.m. to 10 p.m.

The NAM 3km model shows storms firing earlier and impacting the metro by 4-5 p.m., so there are certainly different outcomes possible today. Stay tuned for watches and warnings. We'll have an update later today with meteorologist Sven Sundgaard.